Stasi
Sat, 13 Apr 2002 18:40:23 -0700
HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- STRATFOR The Challenge of Rebuilding Venezuela's Military 12 April 2002 The Venezuelan generals who forced President Hugo Chavez to resign April 12 face a daunting array of internal and external challenges in coming months. These challenges include maintaining public order while a civilian transition junta lays the groundwork for new elections, disarming Chavez's civilian Bolivarian Circles, purging widespread corruption at senior levels within the armed forces, and addressing severe economic problems confronting officers and enlisted personnel. Additionally, the generals must immediately start rebuilding the armed forces' depleted offensive, transport, intelligence and communications capabilities in order to regain full control of border regions that were infiltrated by Colombian guerrillas after Chavez became president in early 1999. However, with Venezuela's economic and social difficulties likely to become more pronounced in coming months, the transition government will not have much time or money to invest in strengthening the military. The civilian transition junta and the armed forces' new commanders likely will look to the United States for support in rebuilding fractured political institutions, quickly securing billions of dollars in new foreign direct investment to revive the Venezuelan economy and reconstituting defense capabilities. The question is whether the Bush administration will step forward with political, economic and military assistance for the junta and for whomever is elected president of Venezuela sometime in the next year. Officials in Washington warned April 11 that all parties in Venezuela must respect the norms of democracy. However, any discomfort or squeamishness in Washington over the way Chavez was removed from power likely will be neutralized by the weight of the evidence demonstrating that he deliberately ordered his personal government and civilian security forces to fire at unarmed men, women and children. In fact, if Chavez is criminally charged and tried for his role in the events of April 11, it likely would silence criticisms in Washington that he was the victim of a military coup. Venezuela's strategic importance as an oil supplier to the United States, and its more than 1,200-mile border with Colombia, mean the Bush administration likely will overlook the details of Chavez's ouster. With conflict flaring up in the Middle East, Bush and his foreign policy advisers have assigned a high priority to expanding oil supplies from countries outside the Islamic sphere of geopolitical influence. Venezuela's vast oil and natural gas reserves, and its geographic location -- only five days from U.S. oil terminals on the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast U.S. coasts -- mean that the country is a vital strategic resource in the United States' efforts to strengthen its energy security. >From a security perspective, Chavez's forced resignation has shifted the regional balance of power away from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), which since 1998 have roamed and camped inside Venezuela's border territories with impunity. Recent, well-documented reports from multiple government and private sources in Venezuela and Colombia have confirmed that several hundred FARC and ELN guerrillas have established quasi-permanent camps in Venezuelan territory. Venezuela's new military commanders likely will move quickly to expel any Colombian guerrillas or paramilitaries found in Venezuelan territory. They also will seek U.S. military assistance, which the Pentagon likely will be pleased to provide after three years of increasingly hostile bilateral military relations under Chavez. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================