Stasi
Sat, 13 Apr 2002 18:41:23 -0700
HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- STRATFOR > Israel Preparing for Gaza Campaign? >========================== > Summary > > As Israel's offensive in the West Bank continues, it appears that > a similar campaign may be undertaken in the Gaza Strip. But there > are a number of considerations Israel must weigh, such as whether > opening another military front will unduly diffuse its military > focus and forces. > > Analysis > > Despite Israel's gains in intelligence and a near complete > lockdown of the Palestinian territories, at least six people were > killed and 60 wounded in Jerusalem April 12 by a female > Palestinian suicide bomber. The woman -- reportedly from the > Jenin refugee camp, the site of fierce battles between Israeli > military forces and Palestinian militants -- blew herself up at a > crowded bus stop on the city's main Jaffa Road. The Al Aqsa > Martyrs Brigade, a militant faction of Palestinian leader Yasser > Arafat's Fatah movement, claimed responsibility for the blast, > the second suicide attack in Israel in three days. > > Two weeks into the Israeli military offensive in the Palestinian > territories, the West Bank remains a flashpoint. Yet Israel has > not matched its campaign in the West Bank -- aimed at destroying > Palestinian militant infrastructure -- with a similar one in the > Gaza Strip. It makes sense that Israel would prefer to deal with > the territories in stages, but a number of recent incidents, as > well as the logic of the Israeli campaign, suggest that Gaza will > be the focus of an upcoming Israeli military offensive. > > For the moment Israel is working on consolidating gains in the > West Bank. At the same time, it is increasingly concerned about > an explosion of violence along the northern border with Lebanon. > Israel has responded to recent Katyusha rocket fire from the > Islamic Hezbollah militant group in south Lebanon with a > combination of remarkably restrained retaliatory air strikes and > a series of diplomatic initiatives backed by both the United > States and Russia. Yet Hezbollah continues to launch rockets > across the border. This will lead Israel to weigh very carefully > the opening of another front in Gaza. > > From the Palestinian viewpoint, another flashpoint on the > northern border or in Gaza would help diffuse Israel's military > focus and perhaps even push the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to > cut their offensive in the territories. The Palestinians are > worried that the longer the IDF keeps the West Bank under lock > and key, the greater intelligence Israel will gain about the > militant operational infrastructure and capabilities. > > At the start of the Israeli offensive in the West Bank, military > forces also moved into Gaza and divided the tiny territory into > three parts, locking down transit between the sectors. The tactic > is intended to create three smaller areas of responsibility and > thus make containing the local Palestinian populations easier. > > Besides sectioning off Gaza, Israeli military forces also moved > into some Palestinian-controlled areas there. On April 9 three > IDF tanks and a bulldozer moved into the area of Deir el-Balah in > central Gaza next to an Israeli settlement at Kisufim. Israeli > tanks also took up positions near Beit Hanun, just east of the > Erez crossing between Israel and northern Gaza. > > But both those areas are now potential flashpoints. A shootout > April 10 between Palestinian gunmen and Israeli security forces > left one Palestinian dead near Kisufim. On April 11, a > Palestinian gunman killed an Israeli border guard during a > shootout at the Erez crossing. The gunman also died and six > others -- three Israelis and three Palestinians -- were wounded. > The Islamic Jihad took responsibility for the attack. > > The spate of shootings comes amid growing concerns that Israel is > preparing for an offensive in Gaza. Local news agencies quoting > Palestinian sources report that panic buying among residents in > the area has led to a shortage of necessities such as flour, as > Palestinians prepare themselves for an offensive similar to the > one in the West Bank. > > In addition to distracting the IDF from its West Bank sweeps, a > heightened Israeli campaign in Gaza might actually benefit > Palestinian militants by bringing greater pressure to bear on > Israeli politicians. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is > currently in Israel and is expected to remain there until April > 16. Powell is asking for a time frame from the Israelis for their > expected withdrawal from the West Bank, but so far they have > refused to commit to anything more specific than two or three > weeks, and launching an offensive in Gaza would extend the time > frame. > > In fact, an operation in Gaza could take as long if not longer > than the one in the West Bank. While only half the size of its > eastern counterpart, Gaza has nearly as many residents. There are > at least 1.1 million people in the area, which is twice the size > of Washington, D.C. Conducting broad sweeps though Gaza City > could take up to a week by itself. > > There is also the issue of the capability of Gaza residents to > resist an Israeli offensive. Given the level of guerrilla > activity there over the last few months -- including two > successful ambushes on Israel's main Merkava battle tanks and the > manufacturing of Qassam rockets for use by Hamas -- resistance is > likely to be as heated, echoing the recent fighting in Jenin, > which has killed nearly 250 Palestinians and 23 IDF soldiers. > > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SEND THIS TO A FRIEND! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > Did you like this analysis? Then forward it to a friend! > > Got this from a friend? 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