On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
> Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of
> "declaring your candidcay for California governer-game?" What's the
> predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer?
It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate
and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split. The GOP
candidates would like to do the same, but at least 3 candidates (Issa,
Riordan, Simon) seem certain to run, suggesting that they think have a
real chance in a 4 way contest (3 GOP's, 1 Dem). It doesn't seem that Issa
stands a chance against a strong Dem (Feinstein, for ex), and his presence
just splits the GOP vote. I'd venture that Issa can afford to be a
political bad boy. Given that Issa's already started to run, why would any
GOP sign up? They would have to fight Issa and steal centrist Dems. Very
up hill battle.