That sure looks like the likely outcome. We never really got a chance to correct misconceptions about the project. (For example, it was never intended to forecast specific terrorist attacks, but only overall trends.) They didn't want to hear.

At 01:10 PM 7/29/2003 -0400, [EMAIL PROTECTED]:
More likely than not they'll say nothing and the story will quietly go away... conveniently relieving people like reporters and senators from the need to admit they spoke out about something they didn't have much, if any, comprehension of.

> All of the criticism seems based on the betting on events, not on the
> use of conditional markets for developing policy. Wonder what they'll say
> when they figure that bit out....
>
> > FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced
> > by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html


Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323



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