Resurgence of the indigenous voter in Asom
Pranjit AgarwalaAfter the election results and the formation of the government, it is evident that the indigenous and ethnic voters have emerged as a strong force in Asoms electoral politics. This resurgence of the indigenous and ethnic people as a potent political power is of great significance. Over the years the unabated large scale illegal influx of predominantly Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh has changed the demographic pattern of Asom. Further with political patronage a large number of them have also enrolled their names in the electoral rolls. This large body of foreigners in the electoral rolls of the State poses a real threat to the genuine citizens as it not only marginalises them politically, but also leaves them powerless in influencing the formation of governments. Hence in Asom politics, especially
in the last two decades, it had become an accepted fact that any party wishing to come to power must have the support of the minorities. Despite this, the fact that Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi was able to form the government for a second successive term without the support of the minorities, but with the support of the Bodoland peoples Progressive Front (Hagrama) (BPPF)(H), may well be a turning point in the States political history.
It is for the first time in the history of post independent Asom that the Bodo community is playing such a prominent role in the running of the State government. The BPPF was formed by former militants belonging to the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) and the All Bodo Students Union (ABSU). The formation of the Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Council (BTAC) was the result of both the BLTs armed struggle and the ABSUs political movement overground. Hagrama Mahilary was the leader of the dreaded BLT. The BLT was disbanded in December, 2003
after an accord was signed between the BLT, the Centre and State government, and the BTAC formed. In last years elections to the BTAC the BPPF split with Hagrama Mahilary forming the BPPF(H). In the elections the BPPF(H) proved its unchallenged political dominance in the BTAC area. In the Assembly elections it had a pre-poll alliance with the Congress. It once again proved its political supremacy by winning 12 seats thereby enabling it to give the Congress the crucial support needed to form the government. A new political equation has thus emerged which evokes more confidence in all the indigenous people of the State.
This confidence is not misplaced as on the key issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh the BPPF(H) share the same views as the majority of the indigenous people of the State. Their track record also inspires confidence as they have been able to restrict the unchecked flow of illegal immigrants in the Bodo dominated areas. Besides giving priority
to the development of the BTAC areas and other Bodo specific issues, they have also given equal importance to State-wide matters. They have pledged to ensure the stability of the government, work for peace and progress of Asom in general and Bodoland in particular and seriously try to resolve the problem of illegal infiltration. In the event of a huge Assembly the Bodo leaderships willingness to rise above narrow communal interests, take a broader perspective on all issues and work for the greater good while addressing their own problems, is in contrast to the infleunce peddling that is usually indulged in by parties with similar political leverage. This is a refreshing attitudinal change and if sustained with will open up new vistas of fruitful coalition politics in the future.
The repeal of the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act (IMDT) by the Supreme Court became an important issue in the recent elections. The Supreme Court verdict came as a blow to
the minorities who blamed the Congress for not defending the Act strongly. The Congress tried to allay their fears by proclaiming the Foreigners (Tribunals for Assam) Order of 2006. But this failed to satisfy the leaders of the minority community. Consequently to protect their interests they left the Congress and formed the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) under the leadership of Badaruddin Azmal. The formation of the AUDF on the eve of the elections demonstrated the political clout wielded by its proponents. It was hence widely acknowledged that in the event of a hung Assembly the AUDF would be the deciding factor in government formation.
With the Congress weakened and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in disarray a hung Assembly was inevitable. Under the circumstances the AGP on whose petition the Supreme Court had repealed the IMDT Act and which considers itself as the true representative of indigenous and regional interests chose to keep its options open
regarding a post-poll alliance with the AUDF. Ironically , in contrast, Tarun Gogoi defied the Congress tradition of minority appeasement and termed the AUDF a communal party and refused to have any alliance with it. Apparently this clear cut stand may be the reason for the Congresss spectacular success in the Upper Asom region which consists mainly of the Assamese and tea communities and is considered a bastion of AGP style regionalism. More significantly the consequences of the Congress stand vis-a vis the AUDF besides winning seats, may have broken a long standing psychological barrier in Asoms collective political psyche and opened up new avenues of strategic alliances that could serve the interests of all sections of the people.
While new alliances that allows wider participation in Government is welcome, a strong and responsible opposition is also necessary to check government malpractices and provide a viable alternative. The AGPs repeated splits, the
infighting between its leaders and their hankering after power and pelf has disillusioned the people and eroded its support base. That the AGP is stagnating will be evident from the percentage of votes they polled in the last two Assembly elections. In 2001 they polled 20.13% which registered a negligible increase to 20.76% in 2006. On the other hand the BJP polled 9.26% in 2001 which showed an appreciable increase to 12% in 2006. If the AGP is to become a viable alternative in the future it must reorient itself and become more people and performance oriented instead of power oriented.
The formation of a Congress led Government has enhanced the prospects of peace. A change in government at this crucial juncture would have hampered the nascent peace talks started by the previous Government with both the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB). The Congress coalition with the former militants of BLT should inspire
confidence in both militant outfits to join the mainstream. Violence cannot remove regional, social or economic inequalities. Economic development is the only way to remove backwardness for which a violence free environment is necessary. The militant outfits must acknowledge that the people of Asom want peace to be the new basis for a prosperous Asom.
The Congress may have succeeded in forming the Government with the support of the BPPF (H). But it is already worried about the erosion of its traditional support among the minorities. Its fears are not entirely unfounded. While in the 2001 Assembly elections the Congress got 39.60% of the votes polled, its share in 2006 came down to 3l%. On the other hand the newly formed AUDF was able to get 9% of the votes cast and win 10 seats. Clearly the AUDF did have an impact on the voting pattern to the detriment of the Congress. Already there is pressure from New Delhi on the Asom Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) to soften
its stand towards the AUDF. With elections to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly due next year the All India Congress Committee (AICC) is afraid of antagonising the minorities further. But New Delhi has always been ignorant of the social, ecmomic and political ground realities prevailing in Asom and the NE region. Having emerged as the single largest party with 53 seats and set a new course by successfully forming a coalition Government by aligning with the emerging ethnic forces, it is now upto the APCC to enlighten the AICC about-the new realities.
The political awakening of the different ethnic communities of Asom is the new reality. They are the original inhabitants of this land and the true sons of the soil. All genuine citizens of Asom irrespective of their religion, community, caste or language welcome this emerging trend and would like them to be equal partners in the future of the State. The political parties must also accept this fact and respect the wishes of the
people. They must therefore confine to the dustbin of history the prevailing concept of vote bank politics which has encouraged illegal immigration for political gain and deterred all political parties from addressing the issue strongly. With dependence on doubtful citizens decreasing they may then have the courage to tackle the problem boldly and effectively. This is the true remedy for the regeneration of Asom.
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