But I'm only trying to make a point, not pin the analogy down perfectly. Naturally the stronger the player, the more likely his moves will conform to the level of the top players.
The basic principle is that the longer the contest, the more opportunities a strong player has to demonstrate his superiority over an inferior player and/or recover from mistakes or surprises. In my golf analogy, my friend hits a hole in one. Let's say it was on the first hole of 9 against Tiger Woods. Tiger likely would have hit it in 2 strokes, and my beginner friend would be ahead by 1 stroke! But that 1 stroke lead would almost certainly disappear by the time the next hole was completed, as my friend was typically taking 7 or 8 shots on that par 3 course! Another way to look at this, is that a random legal move generator has a chance to play a perfect game, although that chance is almost infinitesimal. But even that small chance can be an order of magnitude larger if you can shorted the contest even by 1 or 2 moves. - Don On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 8:09 PM, steve uurtamo <[email protected]> wrote: > also, i'm not sure that a lot of most amateurs' moves are very > good. the spectrum of bad moves is wide, it's just that it takes > someone many stones stronger to severely punish small differences > between good and nearly-good moves. among players of relatively > similar strength, these differences will go unnoticed and unpunished. > > s. > > 2009/4/28 Don Dailey <[email protected]>: > > A simplistic model that helps explain this is golf. On a single hole, > even > > a casual golfer has a realistic chance of out-golfing Tiger Woods. Tiger > > occasionally shoots a 1 over par on some hole and even weak amateurs > > occasionally par or even birdie a hole. It's not going to happen a > lot, > > but it's not ridiculous either. Years ago I taught a player how to > golf, > > and on his third time out with me, he hit a hole in one on a short par > > 3. If Tiger Woods had been playing with us, he would have lost that > hole > > to this beginner. > > > > But in a 9 hole match, the odds go down enormously - for all practical > > purposes there is no chance. > > > > I kind of think of GO like that, even though it's a pretty simplistic > > model. Each move is like a hole of golf, it can be a good "shot" or a > bad > > one. With GO, however, probably a LOT of your moves are just as good > as > > the moves of a good player. But it's the ones that fall short, that > kill > > you. > > > > Go on a big board is like 18 holes of golf compared to just 1 or 2 holes > of > > golf. The better player is far more likely to win the 18 hole match > than > > the 1 hole match. > > > > - Don > > > > > > > > > > > > On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 1:53 PM, Ivan Dubois <[email protected]> > wrote: > >>> > >>> I noticed that, in general, changes in the playout policy have a much > >>> bigger impact on larger boards than on smaller boards. > >>> > >>> Rémi > >> > >> I think rating differences are emplified on larger boards. This is easy > to > >> see if you think about it this way : > >> > >> Somehow a 19x19 board is like 4 9x9 boards. Let us define a new game > that > >> I would call 4-Go where instead of playing one game, you play > simultenously > >> 4 games and determine the winner by calculating the sum of the scores of > the > >> four games. Certainly rating differences would be bigger with 4-go than > with > >> go (given the same two players). This explains why rating differences > are > >> bigger on 19x19 than 9x9. > >> > >> Ivan > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> computer-go mailing list > >> [email protected] > >> http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > computer-go mailing list > > [email protected] > > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > > > _______________________________________________ > computer-go mailing list > [email protected] > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ >
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