-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! US has Taiwan card up its sleeve Martin Kettle in Washington and John Gittings in Shanghai Thursday April 5, 2001 The Guardian George Bush's advisers are examining a graduated list of possible steps the United States could take if there is no quick end to the stand-off with China over the detained American EP-3 spy plane. With China continuing to insist on an American apology before any moves to release the 24 crew members and the plane itself on Hainan island in the South China sea, and with the US still insisting that it will offer no such thing as Chinese jets challenged its aircraft in international airspace, the prospect of such measures grew more likely yesterday. But it was far from clear whether the Bush administration had decided which steps to take, or when to take them. One early possibility that has been discussed would be the withdrawal from Beijing of the US ambassador, Joseph Prueher. That would be a sharp change in the generally restrained way Washington has been handling the dispute. A diplomatic move that would stop short of a rupture would be for Mr Bush to cancel his planned visit to China in October, when he was to participate in the Asia-Pacific economic summit in Shanghai. In the medium term, the strongest action the administration could take would be to defy Beijing's objections and agree to sell four Aegis guided missile destroyers to Taiwan, equipping the island with a shield against China's increased offensive missile capability. A decision on that sale is due within the next three weeks. Before the spy plane incident, the signs from Pentagon sources had been that the US was planning to stop short of agreeing to the Aegis sale. But the political mood in Congress and the administration may have shifted by the time the decision comes due. Taiwan is also thought to have asked the US for other sophisticated weapons including aircraft, submarines and sonar detection equipment. China has mounted a strong campaign against the sales to Taiwan - whose present-day status as an independent country it does not accept - and there was speculation in the US press yesterday that the issue would be a litmus test not just for Mr Bush but also for China's leader, Jiang Zemin, who is identified with the reunification cause. If the spy plane deadlock runs into next week, the domestic political pressures on Mr Bush are certain to rise quickly. The Republican party is divided over China, with national security hardliners urging a more aggressive stance towards Beijing, while free trade proponents want to get Chinese markets opened up to US exports. The mood in Washington is cautious, even among zealots, with Republicans anxious not to put overt pressure on Mr Bush too soon, and Democrats lying low. But the House of Representatives voted 406-6 on Tuesday to condemn China's human rights record at this month's annual United Nations human rights commission meeting in Geneva. Critics are beginning to threaten other action, such as moves to stop Beijing winning the competition to hold the 2008 Olympic Games. "It's appearing more likely that they're maybe planning on detaining our people over there. If that's the case, it's going to hurt our relationship. "It's not going to benefit the Chinese because they have all these issues on the table -everything from the Olympics to the human rights convention in Geneva, to the arms sales to Taiwan," said Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, an independent-minded Republican. "The key thing here is to keep the pressure up, not let the rhetoric get out of hand, and basically just be very firm. You can't back down," said Ed Rollins, a Republican strategist who is advising his party on future steps in the crisis. That mood is mirrored on the Chinese side. In spite of Beijing's harsh criticism of US behaviour, there is still an underlying wish that relations between the two countries should not suffer permanently from the spy plane incident. Some Chinese commentators deliberately focused on ways and means of finding a way forward yesterday. Participants in a discussion on the main national TV channel argued that the leaders on both sides had a shared interest in mending relations. Foreign policy advisers have consistently urged President Jiang to lay the groundwork for a long-term relationship with the US extending well into the new century. Although Chinese hardliners are more critical of the US, no one has offered an alternative foreign policy. Yet China is also unwilling to buy detente at too high a price. The leadership must be able to show significant results - or postpone the US-China project. The accident off Hainan island has created a dilemma that cannot be easily solved. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! 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