-Caveat Lector- from - http://ca.news.yahoo.com/020312/6/ksm8.html
Tuesday March 12 1:44 AM EST UN study findings: Long-predicted population boom going bust By CINDY ROBERTS UNITED NATIONS (AP) - Women around the world are choosing to have fewer children, confounding long-held predictions of a global population of 10 billion by the end of this century, a UN study said. Demographers from around the world met at the United Nations on Monday to consider lowering that estimate to between eight billion and nine billion. That is not just a mathematical exercise. The implications are "momentous," the UN Population Division report said. Governments use population projections to plan just about everything, from social security to school budgets, said Joseph Chamie, the agency's director. For decades, experts assumed the global population, now about six billion, would reach a staggering 10 billion by the end of this century. But the past few decades have witnessed dramatic declines in birthrates in the large, developing countries that were driving the growth. There are 74 countries in what the United Nations calls the intermediate-level fertility group, where women have between 2.1 and five children each. This group accounts for about 43 per cent of the world's population and includes Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico and the Philippines. The study suggests those countries are heading toward a fertility rate of 1.85 children for each woman by 2050, a significant decrease that in India alone would represent 85 million fewer people. "That's groundbreaking because anything below two children, like we have in Europe, the population starts to decline," Chamie said. If that new scenario is correct, the world population will ultimately begin to shrink, though not in this century. Since 1965, world fertility has declined from five to 2.7 births per woman, the study said. There are many factors for the declining birthrates, not the least of which is the use of contraceptives. Now that women have the means to limit the size of their families, they are choosing to do so, Chamie said. "For centuries people did not have this control, this freedom to choose the timing and the number of children they wanted," he said. Also, many people in developing countries are moving to cities, negating the need for large families to work the farm. Changing attitudes about the role of women, declines in infant mortality and better reproductive health care also play a role. Suriname is at the low end of the intermediate-level countries with a birthrate of 2.2 children per woman, while Guatemala and Sudan are at the high end with 4.9. By comparison, Europe is at 1.34 children per woman and Japan 1.33. China, the most populous country, has a birthrate of 1.8 children per woman. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html";>Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/";>ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
