Michael Turner
Tue, 01 Mar 2005 01:05:42 -0800
Joe Latrell writes, in part: "A true realist is just an optimist who is not afraid to roll up the sleeves, dive into the details, and do the hard work to realize the ideal." Actually, a true realist looks closely at ideals first. If they haven't been realized yet, the true realist often asks why. Quite often, the details they dive into reveal that there's at least one very good reason why it hasn't happened yet. I once read the story of the invention of the fully-implantable pacemaker. The inventor didn't start out to invent any such thing. He tried one idea, it failed, that gave him an idea for something else to invent, and some half-dozen failures later, he had a success. It wasn't what he started out to do. I'd still say he was a successful inventor, though. His modus operandi was typical of successful inventors. He didn't keep plugging away at the impossible. He moved on, with what he'd learned - and eventually found something that was possible. However, if your goal is a Europa ocean probe, you can't declare success if all you end up with in the end is a better-tasting microwave popcorn, after a long series of detours away from the initial goal. You have to face some realities, and one of these is that, at the moment, and for the foreseeable future, something like Icepick may be politically impossible, not just very daunting in terms of current technology. Sometimes, you roll up your sleeves, and do the hard work of determining feasibility, and the answer is that it can't be done right now. Brilliant inventors do this all the time. Edison and his crew tried to do the hard work of trying to determine why transatlantic telegraphic cable traffic was so distorted, which was limiting the bandwidth to laughably slow rates of transmission. They built an analogue model using carbon instead of wire, to simulate the effect of transatlantic distance. But they couldn't even get their model to work - it was so sensitive to vibration that nearby traffic caused even greater noise. So they mothballed it. Later, the observations about carbon vibration sensitivity led to another useful invention: reliable, compact microphones. It took a while for communications theory and electronics to catch up with the real problem. Some developments take time. Edison was working with an advantage: The process of invention for practical, commercializable inventions for terrestrial applications is often serendipitously productive. Sometimes (but only sometimes) one failure leads you on to another success later. If only the development of space applications were like that! You still hear from space advocates the frequently-repeated factoid that every dollar spent on space yields 7 to 10 dollars of spin-off benefit, but NASA's own studies showed that the real payoff ratio is actually inferior in performance to even the most conservative investment strategies. A better ion drive? Useful only in space. Better cosmic ray shielding? Cosmic rays are a negligible health hazard on Earth. Better ways to bake oxygen out of rocks on the Moon? We're not short of oxygen down here. And the ultimate test of most of these inventions can't be down here, in the lab. You've got to put something up there, at great expense. Clever space inventions tend to be useful only in space, taking you back to the political question: where are you going to get the money? "How can we succeed if we don't try?" you may respond. Well, how can you succeed at anything if you don't face reality? Success is where you find it - and good inventors know this. Dead ends abound in any ambitious endeavor. Sometimes the best you can do is just to go find another ambitious endeavor, and leave the field fallow for a while, to let other developments take their course and fertilize the field serendipitously. That tends to happen, over the long run. But the long run in space is longer than most long runs. -michael turner [EMAIL PROTECTED] -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Sean McCutcheon Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 6:18 AM To: europa@klx.com Subject: RE: Closure of the europa mailing list "But in the end, if we believe in a goal and proceed with that ideal in our mind and hearts, we can achieve it. I for one am doing what I can in my own small way. If each of us does this, then we will succeed - within our lifetimes." Joe, I heartily agree. Experience has shown me that much of life is a string of self-fulfilling prophesies--and so it is far more practical to remain an optimist because for every problem that the pessimist finds intractable, the optimist will see several possible solutions. Just as it has been said that a cynic is a failed idealist, self-styled "realists" are often (but not always) people who are optimists at heart but have been shot down often enough that they've become afraid of being made to look like a fool again. A true realist is just an optimist who is not afraid to roll up the sleeves, dive into the details, and do the hard work to realize the ideal. Two things are necessary but not sufficient for success: hope and work. It is possible to do both and still fail. But it is not possible to succeed while avoiding either. Why work is necessary is obvious. But hope is equally necessary because we're not likely to put effort into anything that we believe is impossible. So, to paraphrase Gurdjieff, we should work as if everything depends on work and hope as if everything depends on hope. Take care, everyone. Sean -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Joe Latrell Sent: Monday, February 28, 2005 1:48 AM To: europa@klx.com Subject: Re: Closure of the europa mailing list All, It is a sad day, but an understandable one. The list has had a very good run and a lot of people have had the opportunity to sound off on ideas. I for one am glad to have made a few friends along the way :) Michael, as for the ladder, it is being built, albeit slowly, but it is getting there. We might not be able to build an advanced probe in our garages, but with grace, luck, a little skill and a lot of persistence, we will get something built that may be that starts the big machine in motion. Then again maybe not. The world is funny that way. But in the end, if we believe in a goal and procede with that ideal in our mind and hearts, we can achieve it. I for one am doing what I can in my own small way. If each of us does this, then we will succeed - within our lifetimes. Let's go see what's out there. Let's go exploring. Joe Latrell Beyond-Earth Enterprises Michael Turner wrote: > Larry writes: > "Perhaps now it is best that the list move on to where discussions can be > expanded upon in order to turn the talk into a real Icepick." > > The premise of that statement is that discussions here can contribute to a > mission that is, at minimum, a generation in the future. Any such mission > will require billions of dollars, a great deal of technical groundwork, and > a base of experience accumulated by conducting less ambitious work on the > Moon and on Mars. > > When I first joined this list, I looked through the archives and was > intrigued that some people here were actually trying to build something. > However, the more I became acquainted with the actual engineering > requirements of a probe that could reach Europa's ocean, the more > incredulous I became that people were trying to prototype any such probe in > their garages. I stayed on the list because there was the occasional > posting of interest, and the occasional interesting discussion (even if that > discussion was frequently off-topic.) > > If I hadn't been on this list, I would probaby never have met some > interesting people - specifically, Jack Reeve and Gary McMurtry. It's been > worthwhile for that alone. > > On the other hand ... I think there's a certain sense among space > enthusiasts that there's something inherently noble in 'reaching for the > stars.' The problem is, you don't make upward progress unless you're also > reaching for the next rung of a ladder. What ladder? Where? If one > doesn't exist, how do you build one? If building such a ladder requires > public money, how do you generate political will? And if political will > fails to materialize, is this not a recipe for bitterness? > > Far-future goals fail to energize and eventually lose their appeal when > there is no near-term satisfaction to be had in pursuing them. In Tom > Stoppard's play, "The Coast of Utopia" we hear Herzen say, "A distant end is > not an end but a trap. The end we work for must be closer - the laborer's > wage, the pleasure in the work done, the summer lightning of personal > happiness." These were the words of a former revolutionary who had become a > political gradualist. Earlier, he'd groused that "the people are more > interested in potatoes than in freedom." Eventually he became a realist > about human nature, but without losing hope. > > I may live long enough to hear news of Europa's ocean finally being reached. > In the meantime, however, I don't see a *realistic* path to contributing > directly to this goal in my remaining lifetime. For me, there are better > things to be involved in. > > It's still a great goal, don't get me wrong about that. > > -michael turner > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of LARRY > KLAES > Sent: Monday, February 28, 2005 8:59 AM > To: europa@klx.com > Subject: Re: Closure of the europa mailing list > > > Posting to the Icepick list has always been something of walking on a > narrow path. > Too few posts and the list is essentially sterile. Too many and it gets > clogged up > and dies. > > I tried to post articles that were either relevant to the discussion of > exploring Europa > or related to it to better improve the knowledge base of the list. > Obviously if a subject > gets folks interest they are going to expand on it, and it is rather hard > to contain such > enthusiasm and bursts of information, which I have seen many times on this > list, and > which has a far higher signal-to-noise ratio than many similar ones which > purport to > be about space and related topics. In the end I could not stop posting or > see other > posts not happen, because then why have such a list at all? > > I have long hoped - and still do - that discussing the exploration of > Europa with > submarine probes will help to bring about its reality some day. I do > appreciate the > long effort Jeff has made to keep the list and idea alive, which started > off in 1998 as > a way for the Boston Chapter of the National Space Society (NSS) to have a > space > project to focus its members energy, time, and talents. > > Perhaps now it is best that the list move on to where discussions can be > expanded upon > in order to turn the talk into a real Icepick. > > I look forward to seeing where the list will be taken now. I hope it too > is run as > well as Jeff has done it and the quality is maintained. I also hope to > see all of > you there making your contributions to the exploration of an amazing > world. > > Thanks and regards, > > Larry > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Joe Barrera > To: europa@klx.com > Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2005 8:28 PM > Subject: Re: Closure of the europa mailing list > > > > Or I could just host it on polymathy.org... either way. > > Eugen Leitl wrote: > > >On Sat, Feb 26, 2005 at 11:15:30AM -0500, Jeff Foust wrote: > > > > > > > >>distribution list as well. This makes it increasingly difficult to > >>support the operation of this list. > >> > >> > > > >Thanks for being our host for so long. > > > > > > > >>Therefore, I must sadly inform you that this list will be shut down in > >>one week, on Saturday, March 5. At that time the list will no longer > >>relay messages and the list of subscribers will be destroyed. > >>Hopefully, this one-week period will give any interested parties the > >>time needed to create and announce a new list to the group. Again, I > >>regret having to make such a move, but the current state of Internet > >>email traffic leaves me no other options. > >> > >> > > > >As a temporary placeholder (unless a better host comes along; I am > currently > >unable to offer a highly available system) I've created > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >Your Group europa-space has been created. You can access your group > using the > >link below or from the Yahoo! Groups "My Groups" page. > >Group name: europa-space > >Group home page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/europa-space > >Group email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >Post message: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >List owner: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > > -- > That girl became the spring wind > She flew somewhere, far away > Undoing her hair, lying down, in her sleep > She becomes the wind. > > > == > You are subscribed to the Europa Icepick mailing list: europa@klx.com > Project information and list (un)subscribe info: http://klx.com/europa/ > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. > Version: 7.0.300 / Virus Database: 266.5.0 - Release Date: 2/25/2005 -- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. 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