miko
Tue, 13 Jan 2009 08:28:41 -0800
The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 — potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be. The government's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., tracks space weather and forecasts its changes, which can affect millions of dollars worth of activities such as oil drilling, car navigation systems and astronauts. Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder, noted that more than $200 billion of satellites in space can be affected by changes in solar radiation as the cycle rises and falls. Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012. http://dsc. discovery. com/news/2007/04/26/solarstorms_spa.html?category=space&guid=20070424164530 | Prof. The Houw Liong: | " Betul, 2012 diperkirakan akan terjadi aktivitas matahari maksimum yang | mungkin mengganggu sistem pelistrikan, sistem komunikasi dan sistem | navigasi terutama bagian utara dan selatan Bumi, namun Indonesia juga | akan kena dampaknya, selain itu di Indonesia peristiwa itu akan | mempengaruhi cuaca, dan diperkirakan Jakarta dan berbagai tempat lain | akan terjadi curah hujan maksimum. | Lihat juga : | http://sansteknologi.blogspot.com/ " Sunspot cycle 24 begins at last Welcome to the next 11 years... Sunspot cycle 24 has begun with a whimper. The sun's face has been blank for two months, leaving solar astronomers wondering whether the sun would ever get active again. Then, on Sunday, a new spot emerged. The active region had two dark cores, each bigger than Earth. "Everybody was excited. We have been looking forward to it - it's rather like a new birth," Eric Priest of the University of St Andrews in the UK told New Scientist. Unfortunately, while sunspots tend to last a couple of weeks on average, these spots disappeared again after less than 48 hours. Nevertheless, astronomers are still excited. In a new sunspot cycle, spots appear at high latitudes and move towards the equator. They also have a reversed polarity, their magnetic fields pointing in the opposite direction to the spots of the previous cycle. The recent spot 1002 had all the right characteristics, so we are now officially on the next 11-year cycle. http://www. newscientist. com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2008/09/sunspot-cycle-24-begins-at-las.html Sun Shows Signs Of Life: Long-Awaited Solar Cycle 24 Starting To Take Off ScienceDaily (Nov. 12, 2008) — After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. Even more significant is the fact that four of the five sunspot groups belonged to Solar Cycle 24, the long-awaited next installment of the sun's 11-year solar cycle. "October was the first time we've seen sunspots from new Solar Cycle 24 outnumbering spots from old Solar Cycle 23. But it's a start. Stay tuned for solar activity. http://www. sciencedaily. com/releases/2008/11/081111230341.htm Solar Flare Surprise Dec. 15, 2008: Solar flares are the most powerful explosions in the solar system. Packing a punch equal to a hundred million hydrogen bombs, they obliterate everything in their immediate vicinity. Not a single atom should remain intact. http://science. nasa. gov/headlines/y2008/15dec_solarflaresurprise.htm Apparently, Planet X (a.k.a. Nibiru) was spotted by astronomers in the early 1980's in the outermost reaches of the Solar System. It has been tracked by infrared observatories; seen lurking around in the Kuiper Belt and now it is speeding right toward us and will enter the inner Solar System in 2012. So what does this mean to us? Well, the effects of the approach of Planet X on our planet will be biblical, and what's more the effects are being felt right now. Millions, even billions of people will die, global warming will increase; earthquakes, drought, famine, wars, social collapse, even killer solar flares will be caused by Nibiru blasting through the core of the Solar System. As investigated in my previous article "No Doomsday in 2012", a lot of weight had been placed on the end of an ancient Mayan calendar, the "Long Count". According to this calendar and Mayan myth, something is going to happen on December 21st, 2012. Now the world's Planet X supporters seem to have calculated that this hypothetical, deadly planet will arrive from a highly eccentric orbit to wreak gravitational havoc on Earth, sparking geological, social, economic and environmental damage, killing a high proportion of life… in 2012. http://www. universetoday. com/2008/05/25/2012-no-planet-x/ >>>> Beberapa hari yang lalu Mama louren ditanya di sebuah TV swasta >>>> tentang 2012, beliau menjawab dia tidak dapat menembus 2012 dan >>>> setelahnya, dia hanya bilang akan ada NEW ORDE Sunspot Is Harbinger Of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk For Electrical Systems A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions, showed signs it was on its way late Thursday when the cycle's first sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said. During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe. A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time. http://www. sciencedaily. com/releases/2008/01/080107143109.htm Sun's Magnetic Field May Impact Weather And Climate: Sun Cycle Can Predict Rainfall Fluctuations ScienceDaily (Dec. 3, 2008) — The sun’s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and southern hemispheres. According to a study in Geographical Research, the droughts are related to the solar magnetic phases and not the greenhouse effect. The study uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia. It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – the basic tool for forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns – and rainfall fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in 1914 -1924. http://www. sciencedaily. com/releases/2008/12/081202081449.htm Scientists Predict Big Sunspot Cycle Coming Solar scientists said Monday the next sunspot cycle could be 30 percent to 50 percent stronger than the last one, and it could begin up to a year later than expected – although other scientists dispute the timing prediction. The peak of the cycle, called the Solar Maximum, generates more frequent magnetic storms and ejections of energetic particles that can slow satellite orbits - thereby interfering with global navigation – as well as disrupt communications and bring down power systems. During a telephone briefing for reporters Monday, the scientists said they have great confidence in the forecast, because their model has matched the historical data from the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 percent accuracy. Their Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. They said they expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about six months to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is expected to reach its peak sometime in 2012. Both groups said the model should help them to forecast sunspot activity for two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s. http://www. spacedaily. com/reports/Scientists_Predict_Big_Sunspot_Cycle_Coming.html Scientists predict next solar cycle peak Space weather forecasters can't agree on how intense coming storm will be WASHINGTON - The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 — potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots. The government's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., tracks space weather and forecasts its changes, which can affect millions of dollars worth of activities such as oil drilling, car navigation systems and astronauts. Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012. "We're hoping to achieve a consensus sometime in the next six to 12 months," said Douglas Biesecker, a space environment center scientist who is chairman of the forecast panel. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots. During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the Sun, the agency said. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, shoot highly charged matter toward Earth. http://www. msnbc. msn. com/id/18317861/ Sunspot outlook 2012 The future of the sun appears spotty, according to some solar scientists. By incorporating physical observations of the sun into a model, some scientists predict that the sun will boast more sunspots during its next cycle than previous estimates anticipated. The Swedish 1-meter Solar Telescope imaged these sunspots in July 2002. A new model predicts that about six years from now, the solar cycle will peak with higher numbers of sunspots than scientists previously estimated. Image is courtesy of Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. To find out which model correctly predicts the next cycle, astronomers will have to “wait a few years,” Scherrer says. The next cycle is expected to peak sometime around 2012. http://www. geotimes. org/may06/NN_Sunspot.html Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm activity to quiet and back again. The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012. By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s. "This is a significant breakthrough with important applications, especially for satellite-dependent sectors of society," explains NCAR scientist Peter Gilman. The NCAR team received funding from the National Science Foundation and NASA’s Living with a Star program. http://www. ucar. edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning? The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun. Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before. http://science. nasa. gov/headlines/y2007/14dec_excitement.htm?list951772 Solar Storm Warning When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011." Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011. "History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011." Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming. http://science. nasa. gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle? *** Stay tuned for updates from scie...@nasa. *** >>> Beberapa hari yang lalu Mama louren ditanya di sebuah TV swasta >>> tentang 2012, beliau menjawab dia tidak dapat menembus 2012 dan >>> setelahnya, dia hanya bilang akan ada NEW ORDE ------------------------------------ =============================================================== ** Arsip : http://members.tripod.com/~fisika/ ** Ingin Berhenti : silahkan mengirim email kosong ke : <fisika_indonesia-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com> =============================================================== Yahoo! 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