John's comments echo
my thoughts on The Bell Lab predictions. And why would this all be a "good"
thing? And what then happens to this skin? These skins?
Carol Gigliotti, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Faculty, Interactive Arts
Technical University of British Columbia
( TechBC)
Suite 301-10334 152A Street
Surrey, BC V3R 7P8
Canada
604-586-6038 (voice)
604-586-5237 (fax)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
www.techbc.ca
-----Original Message-----
From: john courtneidge [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Thursday, November 18, 1999 9:04 AM
To: Michael Gurstein; Faculty
Cc: futurework; CPI-UA
Subject: The 'Privatisation of Knowledge' agenda (Was Re: Bell Labs
Predictions for 2025)
Dear Friends all,
1) Thanks to Michael G for this posting
2) Its contents are of maximal importance for our 21st Century.
* If * these developments are for the benefit of all (the Commonweal) then
we might all be celebrating.
However:
The 'Privatisation of Knowledge' agenda is *the* one that we all need to
get our heads around post-2000.
Knowledge (aka 'Information') is power, and the recent MIicrosoft anti-trust
events, along, in scale, with the partial closure and stock-erosion of your
Local Library, and the impoverishment of your local community schools and
colleges, are sympomatic of the trend.
Many old-sytle socialists cracked on continuously about 'inequality.'
I confess that I let this, largely, go, until I read (the intro and
conclusion at least!) of Richard Wilkinson's 'Unhealthy Societies' where the
evidence is presented, that inequality creates ill-health.
(For al !! )
As to stategies, in light of this knowledge (!?) I'm not clear (yet?)
Hugs to all,
j
***********************
----------
>From: "Michael Gurstein" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: "Faculty" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Cc: "futurework" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, "CPI-UA"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Subject: Fw: Bell Labs Predictions for 2025
>Date: Wed, Nov 17, 1999, 3:36 pm
>
>Ready or not...
>
>MG
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 1999 9:47 AM
>Subject: Bell Labs Predictions for 2025
>
>
>> For more information on this item please visit the CANARIE CA*net 3
>Optical
>> Internet program web site at http://www.canet3.net
>> -------------------------------------------
>>
>> From Dave Farber's IPer list
>>
>> Date: Sun, 14 Nov 1999 00:51:52 -0500
>> From: The Old Bear <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> Subject: Bell Labs Predictions For 2025
>>
>> Bell Labs predicts a "Global Communications Skin" by 2025
>> MURRAY HILL, NEW JERSEY, U.S.A., 1999 NOV 12 (NB) -- By Steven
>> Bonisteel, Newsbytes. If you think you are plugged in now - with
>> your Internet connection, your wireless phone and your Palm Pilot -
>> just wait until 2025. By then, say experts at Bell Labs, the
>> research arm of Lucent Technologies Inc. [NYSE:LU], you'll be wired
>> into a global communications network through devices as small as a
>> lapel pin.
>> What's more, they say, that global network will be more like a
>> "communications skin" capable of sensing everything from weather
>> patterns to how much milk is in your refrigerator.
>> "We are already building the first layer of a mega-network that
>> will cover the entire planet like a skin," Bell Labs President Arun
>> Netravali said today in a document loaded with prognostications
>> from lab staff. "As communication continues to become faster,
>> smaller, cheaper and smarter in the next millennium, this skin, fed
>> by a constant stream of information, will grow larger and more
>> useful."
>> Netravali said that "skin" will include millions of electronic
>> measuring devices - thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution
>> detectors, cameras, microphones - all monitoring cities, roadways,
>> and the environment.
>> "All of these will transmit data directly into the network, just
>> as our skin transmits a constant stream of sensory data to our
>> brains," he said. "Such systems might be used for anything from
>> constantly monitoring the traffic on a local road, water level in a
>> river to the temperature at the beach or the supply of food in a
>> refrigerator."
>> Bell Labs spokeswoman Wendy Zajack told Newsbytes that the
>> predictions for the future of communications technology were
>> released, in part, to mark the approaching Millennium. In addition,
>> she said, with Bell Labs facing its 75th anniversary, the
>> prognostications underscore the organization's reputation for
>> "brain power."
>> And that's no idle boast. Bell Labs researchers have garnered at
>> least two Nobel Prizes in physics (including one in 1956 for the
>> 1947 discovery of the laser). Zajack notes that Bell Labs, bundled
>> with Lucent when that company was spun off from AT&T Corp. [NYSE:T]
>> in 1996, files applications for more than three patents a day and
>> has more than 30,000 inventions to it credit since it was formed 75
>> years ago.
>> Netravali said some recent breakthroughs at Bell Labs, particularly
>> in areas that are boosting bandwidth and reducing the size of
>> electronic components, will help bring about their vision of
>> communications in the new Millennium.
>> Noting that Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated the first
>> long-distance (300 kilometer) transmission of data at a trillion
>> bits per second over a single strand of optical fiber, Netravali
>> said that, in 10 years, a single fiber will carry a quadrillion
>> bits per second.
>> "This will put nearly limitless amounts of bandwidth at users'
>> fingertips," the document stated. "It is this plentiful and
>> inexpensive bandwidth that will enable high-quality
>> videoconferencing and faster, 'always-on' Internet connections in
>> the next century."
>> Netravali said the huge bandwidth will be able to support the
>> massive amount of data required for all the devices wired to the
>> global communication "skin" to communicate as machine-to-machine
>> and object-to-object communication increases. By 2010, he said, the
>> volume of this "infrachatter" will actually surpass communication
>> between humans.
>> "At home, your dishwasher will be able to call its manufacturer
>> when it is malfunctioning and the manufacturer will run diagnostics
>> remotely," Netravali said. "Or your lawn sprinkler could check the
>> Web site of the National Weather Service before turning itself on,
>> to make sure the forecast doesn't call for rain."
>> The Bell Labs researchers said waiting by the phone, surfing the
>> Internet, and face-to-face business meetings will go the way of
>> eight-track tapes.
>> "Software-driven intelligent networks and wireless technology will
>> enable people to be reached wherever they are and will give the
>> consumer the power to choose if a message will be an e-mail, voice
>> mail or video clip," said Rich Howard, wireless research director.
>> Joseph Olive, director of language modeling, said system-on-a-chip
>> technology that will lead to communications devices - "metaphones"
>> - the size of jewelry that will be voice operated.
>> "Dialing a phone will be a concept learned only in history
>> classes," he said. "Placing a call to mom will be as simple as
>> saying 'Mom.' The small metaphones on your lapel will be able to
>> read Web sites and e-mail to you."
>> Raju Rishi, strategy director of product management, said advances
>> in videoconferencing and high-speed networking will lead to a rise
>> in telecommuting to virtual offices and to virtual business travel
>> as well.
>> "Combined with directional microphones, surround-sound audio, and
>> 3-D (three-dimensional) images, the effect is much closer to that
>> of a face-to-face meeting," Rishi said, adding that, as the
>> technology grows more immersive, there will be no need for business
>> colleagues to gather in one place.
>> Kenan Sahin, Bell Labs vice-president of software technology, said
>> the Internet will be transformed from a cache of data to a smarter
>> "HiQNet" in which personal "cyberclones" will anticipate humans'
>> information requirements.
>> "This HiQNet, which will be as immediate as dial tone is today,
>> will be so integral to our lives it will become practically
>> invisible," the document said. "People will use anything from a TV
>> to a wireless lapel phone for access."
>> Said Sahin: "The first communication revolution of the 20th Century
>> gave us telephone-based communications. The second gave us
>> computer-based communications like e-mail and the Internet. The 21st
>> Century will bring us a knowledge-based communications revolution.
>> "We will be able to get expert help for everything from sending
>> baby photos to our family to finding the perfect job. That same
>> network intelligence may also save people money. You'll be able to
>> say to your communications device, 'I want to talk to Bob in
>> Chicago,' and the device will get you the best deal on the
>> connection.
>> "The Internet will evolve from being a complexity in our lives that
>> we have to spend time mastering, to a behind-the-scenes tool that
>> will improve our quality of life," Sahin said. "In the end, (it
>> will) make us more human, not less."
>>
>> Reported by Newsbytes.com, http://www.newsbytes.com
>>
>>
>>
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