Musharraf strives to make the mainstream prevail
By Umer Farooq, Islamabad
In his first address following the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington, Pakistan’s military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, compared the developing situation faced by his nation to that of 1971: the only time there was a civil war in the country, which led to its dismemberment. Although Pakistan’s internal situation may not be as bad as it was at the time of the 1971 war with India, the hardened stance by religious groups on the military government’s decision to side with United States in the fight against terrorism is posing a formidable challenge to Pakistan’s internal stability.
During the weeks preceding the US military strikes Pakistan’s politico-religious groups staged huge protests in support of the Taliban in the two major Pakistani cities closest to the Afghan border. In the wake of the US strikes that started on 7 October, these street protests have grown violent.
However, most of the religious groups vocally opposing the US military strikes against Afghanistan are part of Pakistan’s mainstream politics and have a stake in the electoral politics General Musharraf has promised to restore by next year. Most analysts agree that, apart from the street protests, the chances of these groups reacting violently to the US military strikes are not high.
On the other hand, militant groups like Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (which has links with Osama bin Laden) have been put under wraps by the military government. Some of their leaders, including the chief of Harket, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman Khalil, have been arrested on the request of US authorities, and the government has advised the Pakistani commercial banks to freeze the accounts of all militant groups whose names appear on the US list issued in the wake of the attacks of 11 September. Most of the other militant groups in Pakistan are observing silence.
While General Musharraf’s decision to side with the US has led to violent backlashes in towns near the Afghan border, it has, however, attracted the support of all the country’s major political parties, which represent the mainstream of Pakistan’s public opinion. The country’s leading political party, the Pakistan People Party, is supporting the change in Pakistan’s Afghan policy, which, in its words, could lead to the creation of a peaceful Afghanistan. In fact, one of the stalwarts of the PPP, with close links to the Taliban, was part of negotiations with the Taliban authorities to hand over Osama bin Laden in order to avert US strikes.
Analysts in Pakistan say that recent changes in the military hierarchy indicate the desire of the military establishment to portray a liberal and professional face that is willing to co-operate with the world community. Former Director General of the Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate (ISI) Lieutentant General Mehmood, who undertook two visits to Kandahar to negotiate with the Taliban, has been replaced by Pushtun officer Lieutentant General Ehsan-ul-Haq, whose balanced views are well known. The change, according to official sources, indicates Pakistan’s desire to see a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.
The re-shuffle in the army hierarchy has brought senior-ranking Pushtun officers into key posts. These officers are well acquainted with the regions bordering Afghanistan and well versed in the dynamics of local tribal and political structures.
There is a considerable body of opinion in Islamabad that believes that the US strikes should be short and well targeted against terrorist bases inside Afghanistan so that, in the next stage, efforts to bring stable government to Kabul can begin. In this regard Pakistan is not opposed to former Afghan King Zahir Shah playing a role in the future political dispension of Afghanistan to fill the vacuum created by the ousting of the Taliban.
Meanwhile, the military government is relying heavily on the argument that the US strikes are being made against terrorist camps inside Afghanistan and not against the Afghan people or Islam. However, a long and protracted US military operation, and the collateral damage that could entail, could offset that argument. Using the prevalent idiom of Pakistani politics, the religious groups continue to portray the US strikes as attacks on Afghanistan and its people.
Most analysts agree that President Musharraf is in the process of consolidating his position with the help of supportive business classes and liberal elements of Pakistani society along with changes in the top military hierarchy. However, the worsening economic situation caused by the uncertain business and investment climate could exacerbate the political balance cureent held by the general. The continuing US military strikes and demonstrations of anti-US feelings on the streets of Pakistan have already caused a decline in Pakistan’s exports. There are reports of foreign business houses losing interest in doing business with Pakistani campanies. The lifting of sanctions by almost all the Western nations may be in contrast with this, but the removal of sanctions is hardly having an immediate effect on Pakistan’s economic situation.
By Umer Farooq, Islamabad
In his first address following the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington, Pakistan’s military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, compared the developing situation faced by his nation to that of 1971: the only time there was a civil war in the country, which led to its dismemberment. Although Pakistan’s internal situation may not be as bad as it was at the time of the 1971 war with India, the hardened stance by religious groups on the military government’s decision to side with United States in the fight against terrorism is posing a formidable challenge to Pakistan’s internal stability.
During the weeks preceding the US military strikes Pakistan’s politico-religious groups staged huge protests in support of the Taliban in the two major Pakistani cities closest to the Afghan border. In the wake of the US strikes that started on 7 October, these street protests have grown violent.
However, most of the religious groups vocally opposing the US military strikes against Afghanistan are part of Pakistan’s mainstream politics and have a stake in the electoral politics General Musharraf has promised to restore by next year. Most analysts agree that, apart from the street protests, the chances of these groups reacting violently to the US military strikes are not high.
On the other hand, militant groups like Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (which has links with Osama bin Laden) have been put under wraps by the military government. Some of their leaders, including the chief of Harket, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman Khalil, have been arrested on the request of US authorities, and the government has advised the Pakistani commercial banks to freeze the accounts of all militant groups whose names appear on the US list issued in the wake of the attacks of 11 September. Most of the other militant groups in Pakistan are observing silence.
While General Musharraf’s decision to side with the US has led to violent backlashes in towns near the Afghan border, it has, however, attracted the support of all the country’s major political parties, which represent the mainstream of Pakistan’s public opinion. The country’s leading political party, the Pakistan People Party, is supporting the change in Pakistan’s Afghan policy, which, in its words, could lead to the creation of a peaceful Afghanistan. In fact, one of the stalwarts of the PPP, with close links to the Taliban, was part of negotiations with the Taliban authorities to hand over Osama bin Laden in order to avert US strikes.
Analysts in Pakistan say that recent changes in the military hierarchy indicate the desire of the military establishment to portray a liberal and professional face that is willing to co-operate with the world community. Former Director General of the Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate (ISI) Lieutentant General Mehmood, who undertook two visits to Kandahar to negotiate with the Taliban, has been replaced by Pushtun officer Lieutentant General Ehsan-ul-Haq, whose balanced views are well known. The change, according to official sources, indicates Pakistan’s desire to see a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.
The re-shuffle in the army hierarchy has brought senior-ranking Pushtun officers into key posts. These officers are well acquainted with the regions bordering Afghanistan and well versed in the dynamics of local tribal and political structures.
There is a considerable body of opinion in Islamabad that believes that the US strikes should be short and well targeted against terrorist bases inside Afghanistan so that, in the next stage, efforts to bring stable government to Kabul can begin. In this regard Pakistan is not opposed to former Afghan King Zahir Shah playing a role in the future political dispension of Afghanistan to fill the vacuum created by the ousting of the Taliban.
Meanwhile, the military government is relying heavily on the argument that the US strikes are being made against terrorist camps inside Afghanistan and not against the Afghan people or Islam. However, a long and protracted US military operation, and the collateral damage that could entail, could offset that argument. Using the prevalent idiom of Pakistani politics, the religious groups continue to portray the US strikes as attacks on Afghanistan and its people.
Most analysts agree that President Musharraf is in the process of consolidating his position with the help of supportive business classes and liberal elements of Pakistani society along with changes in the top military hierarchy. However, the worsening economic situation caused by the uncertain business and investment climate could exacerbate the political balance cureent held by the general. The continuing US military strikes and demonstrations of anti-US feelings on the streets of Pakistan have already caused a decline in Pakistan’s exports. There are reports of foreign business houses losing interest in doing business with Pakistani campanies. The lifting of sanctions by almost all the Western nations may be in contrast with this, but the removal of sanctions is hardly having an immediate effect on Pakistan’s economic situation.
THE END
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