Chris Burford
Mon, 6 Mar 2000 23:53:05 -0800
At 00:15 07/03/00 +0000, I wrote:
>A snap telephone opinion poll for the Guardian tonight reports him to be
over 40 % ahead of his nearest rival, Dobson, who has 13%, with the
Conservative candidate Norris on 11%.
<
Whoops! I have already slandered him. It must be my New Labour proclivities!
He is in fact 55% ahead of his nearest rival. (sic)
I thought I heard that ,but I could not confirm it in writing before I had
to send my post.
Here is the Guardian article on the poll. Perhaps this is a candidate for
erasure if the listserver is concerned about copyright, but all the
material is so relevant for comment and it is a good advert for the
Guardian, I cannot really imagine them suing.
You might like to bookmark their webpage on the contest, since Livingstone
will have no machine to work for him and the media and the internet may be
decisive.
Chris Burford
London
_____________________________
Official candidates eclipsed in survey confirms Ken's cross-party charm
ICM poll: Half of Tories would vote for Livingstone
The London mayor: special report
Alan Travis, Home Affairs Editor Tuesday March 7, 2000
The breathtaking 55% poll lead that Ken Livingstone has built up in the
battle to be the first elected mayor of London is reinforced by nearly
every detail of the findings of the Guardian/ICM opinion poll.
Mr Livingstone's cross-party popularity in London has become so great more
than 70% of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters in the capital say they will
support him against their party candidates - and an extraordinary 48% of
Conservative voters say they will back him.
The poll shows that Livingstone's support is solid at over 60% among both
men and women, across all social classes and all age groups.
Steven Norris, the Tory candidate, is humiliatingly eclipsed by Mr
Livingstone among Conservative voters. Mr Norris, who has 11% support
overall, secures only 40% of the Tory vote, compared with 48% for Mr
Livingstone. The poll indicates that the Tory voters will be engaging in
tactical voting on a scale unseen for more than 20 years.
The detail of the poll spells only despair for Frank Dobson. He might have
hoped that those who were supporting Mr Livingstone - particularly Labour
voters - were doing it only as a mid-term whinge at the performance of the
Labour government.
But when those who said they intended to vote Ken were asked about their
motives it was the personality factor that proved the strongest of all.
Nearly all Livingstone voters think he has been treated unfairly by Labour.
Two thirds think that Frank Dobson is a weak candidate and want to give
Tony Blair a kick by voting for Ken, but when they were asked to specify
the principal reason for voting for him 72% said they believed he was the
best candidate for mayor.
Even among that select group of Conservatives for Livingstone, 68% said
they would back him because he was the best candidate, and only 13% said
they were backing him mainly because they wanted to give Tony Blair a kick.
The only possible saving grace for Mr Dobson lies in the 18% who say they
have not made up their mind. But even if the official Labour candidate were
to sweep the board among these "don't knows", it seems inconceivable that
he will be able to demolish Mr Livingstone's overwhelming lead in the next
two months, given that he starts his campaign at such a low level of
support - 13%.
But there must be disappointment for those who had hoped that a Livingstone
bid for mayor would boost the turnout. Those who say they are certain to
vote account for only 41% - about the same level as a similar ICM poll a
fortnight ago.
As to the immediate future, the poll brings more bad news for Labour. The
next few days will be dominated by the process of expelling Mr Livingstone
from the party for standing against an official candidate.
The poll shows that this may bring even more unpopularity for the party.
Some 59% believe that expelling him would be unfair, as against 27% who do
not. Among Labour voters those who believe it would be unfair reaches 68%.
However much the question of expulsion might be understood and accepted by
party activists, the poll shows that the reasons are not understood by
London voters. They are even more hostile to the idea of other Labour
members being expelled for openly supporting Livingstone. Only 12% of
London voters believe this would be fair, and even 72% of those who say
will vote for Frank Dobson think it would be unfair.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged over 18 by
telephone on March 6. Interviews were conducted across London, and the data
has been weighted to the profile of all London adults.
Ken Livingstone's biographer, John Carvel, will be live online on the
Guardian network at 2pm today to answer your questions about Livingstone's
mayoral bid.
• Ken Livingstone's biographer John Carvel will be live on the Guardian
network at 2pm today to discuss Livingstone's mayoral bid. Post your
questions at www.newsunlimited.co.uk/mayor
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