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Sent from my iPhone Begin forwarded message: > From: "Steve Ellner" <sellne...@gmail.com> > Date: April 18, 2017 at 2:56:11 PM PDT > To: "Jesus Rodriguez Espinoza" <jreapor...@gmail.com>, Jesús > Rodríguez-Espinoza <jesus.rodriguez.espin...@gmail.com>, "Joelle Fishman" > <joelle.fish...@pobox.com>, "John Hammond" <jhamm...@hunter.cuny.edu>, "John > Minns" <john.mi...@anu.edu.au>, "Jose Gregorio Tovar" <tovar...@gmail.com>, > "Joshua Frank" <joshuafran...@gmail.com>, "Joshua Frens-String" > <jfstr...@gmail.com>, "Juan Grigera" <j.grig...@ucl.ac.uk>, "julia Buxton" > <j.d.bux...@bradford.ac.uk>, "julia Buxton" <juliadbux...@yahoo.co.uk>, > "Julio Escalona" <julio.escalon...@yahoo.com>, "June Erlick" > <jerl...@fas.harvard.edu>, "Justin Delacour" <justin.delac...@yahoo.com>, > "Keane Bhatt" <keane.l.bh...@gmail.com>, "Kevin Young" > <kyoung1...@gmail.com>, "Kim Scipes" <kimsci...@earthlink.net>, "Lee Sustar" > <lsus...@ameritech.net>, "Leo Panitch" <lpani...@yorku.ca>, "leonardo > bracamonte" <lebracamo...@gmail.com>, "Lucas Alvarez" > <lalvarez...@gmail.com>, "Lucas Koerner" <lmkoerne...@gmail.com>, "Luis > Alberto Andarcia" <luisandar...@yahoo.com>, "Luis Angosto Ferrandez" > <luis.angosto-ferran...@sydney.edu.au>, "Luis Ricardo Davila" > <lrdavil...@hotmail.com>, "Magda Andarcia" <magda_luisa2...@hotmail.com>, > "Manuel Anselmi" <anselmiman...@gmail.com>, "Marc Becker" > <marcbeck...@gmail.com>, "Marc Becker" <m...@yachana.org>, "Maria Riera" > <nenarier...@gmail.com>, "Mariano Feliz" <marianfe...@gmail.com>, "Mario > Ayala" <marioayal...@yahoo.com.ar>, "Mark Weisbrot" <weisb...@cepr.net>, > "Maxwell Cameron" <came...@politics.ubc.ca>, "Meredith Dodge" > <mdo...@zianet.com>, "Michael Albert" <sy...@zmag.org>, "Michael Lebowitz" > <mlebo...@sfu.ca>, "Michael Lebowitz" <mlebo...@gmail.com>, "Nancy Postero" > <npost...@ucsd.edu>, "Naomi Schiller" <nschil...@brooklyn.cuny.edu>, "Pablo > Morales" <llpmmorale...@gmail.com>, "Pablo Navarrete" <pa...@alborada.net>, > "Pablo Pozzi" <pablo.po...@yahoo.com.ar>, "Pascal Lupien" > <plup...@uoguelph.ca>, "Patrick Clark" <patrickclark1...@gmail.com>, "Peter > Ranis" <pra...@york.cuny.edu>, "Peter Roman" <pro...@hostos.cuny.edu>, "Peter > Winn" <pwi...@gmail.com>, "Ralph Newmark" <r.newm...@latrobe.edu.au>, "Renaud > Lambert" <renaud.lamb...@mondediplo.com>, "Richard Hillman" > <rhillm...@tampabay.rr.com>, "Robert Austin" <rwausti...@gmail.com>, > "Rosalind Bresnahan" <rosalind...@gmail.com>, "Sara Motta" > <sara.c.mo...@newcastle.edu.au>, "Stephany Tovar" > <stephanytova...@hotmail.com>, "Sujatha Fernandes" <sujat...@yahoo.com>, > "Susan Spronk" <susan.spr...@uottawa.ca>, "T.M. Scruggs" > <tm-scru...@uiowa.edu>, "Teresa Meade" <mea...@union.edu>, "Tom Chodor" > <tom.cho...@monash.edu>, "Victor Hugo" <vhmaj...@gmail.com>, "Victor Wallis" > <zend...@aol.com>, "Walter Lippmann" <walte...@earthlink.net>, "William > Robinson" <w.i.robins...@gmail.com>, "Zuleika Arashiro" > <zuleika.arash...@gmail.com> > Subject: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests > > > WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS REACH DOWNTOWN > CARACAS? >> >> All the opposition marches in April called by Henrique Capriles and other >> Venezuelan leaders of the MUD have sought to reach downtown Caracas. The >> ostensible goal is to present a petition to the Defensoria del Pueblo. In a >> normal situation, such a mobilization would certainly be legitimate. But >> opposition leaders fully realize that the government will not allow for the >> protesters to march from the wealthy eastern part of Caracas to the downtown >> area. There are echoes of the April 11, 2002 march that led into the coup >> against President Chávez, when the opposition newspaper El Nacional >> published the large banner headline “The Final Battle in Miraflores,” >> encouraging people that day to march to the presidential palace. >> >> Let us assume that the Maduro government, acting in good faith, were to >> allow the opposition protesters to march to the center of Caracas. Such a >> scenario would go something like this: >> >> Scenario one: The Maduro government meets with opposition leaders and grants >> them permission to march to the center of Caracas. The opposition agrees to >> limit the march to 35,000 people and to end the protest in the late >> afternoon. >> >> Scenario two: Peaceful march to the center of Caracas. Everything goes >> according to plan. >> >> Scenario three: Opposition leaders such as Freddy Guervara (as he has said >> in the past) announces that the opposition will remain in the center of >> Caracas until their demands are met. The less extremist leaders such as >> Capriles now call on their followers to join the protest and people come in >> from the eastern part of Caracas, from the eastern part of Venezuela and >> from the west as far away as Táchira, Mérida and Maracaibo. There are now >> 750,000 protesters in the center of Caracas. >> >> Scenario four: At nighttime, the guarimba brigades, which during the 2014 >> protests were responsible for widespread destruction and violence and have >> acted in a similar way in recent days, go on a rampage and clash with >> national guardsmen and police. >> >> Scenario five: CNN and other international news outlets juxtapose the >> confrontation of the guarimba brigades with security forces, on the one >> hand, and the peaceful protesters, on the other, thus leaving the impression >> that the government is using random force against peaceful protesters (April >> 11, 2002 anyone?). >> >> Scenario six: At this point Maduro may see the handwriting on the wall in >> which case he resigns. If he doesn’t, we can all imagine scenarios seven, >> eight and nine. >> >> from my blog >> http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-would-happen-if-venezuelan.html >> >> > > _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
