Chris Doss
Wed, 28 Jul 2004 06:39:19 -0700
I wrote: --- Chris Doss <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Yes. Ukraine is part of the Union of Four (Russia, > Uraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus). The post-Soviet space > is > consolidating itself politically and economically. > Armenia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan are > also > tilting toward Moscow. Even Georgia, in its own > strange way. >
This is a few years old, but I think this article from a Kyrgyz newspaper sheds some light on this process. Kyrgyz paper outlines Russia's interests in Uzbekistan, Central Asia Vladimir Putin's visit to Uzbekistan, his first foreign visit as president of Russia, is recognition by Russia that Uzbekistan is its strategic partner in Central Asia, `Slovo Kyrgyzstana' newspaper wrote on 19th May. The newspaper said that Uzbekistan was the only Central Asian state "which is really able to counter the possible advancement of the Taleban army to north". It also said that Uzbekistan could fit "most organically" into the military and political axis between Belgrade, Minsk, Moscow, Delhi and Beijing which had arisen following NATO's actions in the Balkans. The following is the text of the newspaper article: [newspaper headline] "A battle" for Asia. Some thoughts about Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's visit to Uzbekistan Today [19th May], Putin is in Tashkent. This is his first visit abroad as the head of the Russian state. It is symbolic that just a few days after the inauguration and his advent to the post officially, the second Russian president headed for the republics of Central Asia (more likely, Putin will visit Dushanbe after Tashkent). Why namely Tashkent rather than Astana and Bishkek? It is needless to copy the Russian Foreign Ministry's protocols. The visit has been prepared in good time and carefully. Even as prime minister, Putin met the Uzbek leader, Islam Karimov, in Tashkent, and the sides outlined strategic ways of rapprochement back then, perhaps, for the first time after so many years of "separation". The Russian president's visit to the Uzbek capital today is the logical conclusion to the first and, a priori, recognition of Uzbekistan by Russia as its strategic partner in Central Asia. It is namely Uzbekistan and not Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan. Everything is clear with the latter. Tajikistan cannot survive without Russia. Tajikistan, which still suffers from the consequences of the civil war , is being torn by conflicts with the opposition and which feels a constant threat from its southern neighbour - warring Afghanistan, looks at the mouth of Moscow as at its beloved mother. Russia is increasing its economic and, what is the main thing, its military presence in Tajikistan and it is well aware that otherwise the external threat from Afghanistan will be more noticeable. Yet the "unpredictable" Taleban, should they suddently take it into their head, will go across the Pamirs like a knife through butter, and it is just the presence of Russian servicemen in Tajikistan that in the past few years has been the most powerful deterrent to the commanders and spiritual leaders of the Taleban movement. More or less everything is clear for Putin with Kyrgyzstan as well. "Yes, you, too, are our strategic partner," Moscow has agreed in response to Bishkek's recognition of Russia as its strategic partner, but, all this is, very likely, as far as global politics is concerned. Russia is courteous and considerate to Kyrgyzstan and is helping with everything in its power, but there is a feeling that everything has been put off until a later time. The membership of the Customs Union of four [Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan], in spite of the abundance of multilateral and bilateral documents which were signed within the framework of this union, has not opened for Kyrgyzstan the long-awaited "safety valve". A window onto Europe did not pan out. Kyrgyzstan, which, with its destroyed economy, is hovering on the edge of an economic precipice, is of no interest at all for Russia in this respect. Moreover, official Bishkek must tackle the moot problem of its so-called "Russian-speaking people" on its own and as soon as possible. They may be given help to survive and remain in the republic or be squeezed out completely (this also is possible), but in this case, Russia will turn its back on Kyrgyzstan completely and take back the word "strategic" Russia has special relations with Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, which has common borders with Russia, a comparatively stable economy and a powerful Slavonic "stratum" in its north, has really become a strategic partner for Russia. Relations between the two countries are close and they must and will develop coherently and dynamically, at least, for two to three decades to come. There remains Uzbekistan with its president who has been "mysterious" until recently. It appears that it is Islam Karimov whom, thanks to Putin's present visit [to Uzbekistan], Russia sees in the role of regional leader. What will Russia get from this? Firstly, indeed it is strategic raw materials - cotton. Secondly, Uzbekistan has managed to preserve virtually its industry, including aircraft and car assembly plants which are geared up to Russian assembly parts, and this is of no small importance for both sides. Finally, there is the main thing: the Russian-Uzbek political and economic alliance will become a real deterrent to the claims of the USA and countries of the Arabic Orient in their moving forward to Central Asia. Having voiced its readiness to return to the CIS Collective Security Treaty's bosom in the foreseeable future, Uzbekistan demonstrated by this its aim to return to the CIS at all, where it has felt itself rather independent until now. Uzbekistan has a powerful army, which is of a certain interest for Russia in respect of military cooperation. Uzbekistan is the only state in the region which is really able to counter the possible advancement of the Taleban army to north. It is no secret that the leaders of the Taleban movement have in their plans the creation of a radical Islamic state with its borders from the Urals to the Indian state and from the Caspian [Sea] to Altay. Finally, it is Tashkent which can be "enrolled" most organically into the structure of a military and political axis between Belgrade, Minsk, Moscow, Delhi and Beijing, the framework of which had taken shape by last summer following NATO's "peace-keeping" expansion to the Balkans. Apparently, "the Russian bear", which has suffered "a political defeat" in the West because of the Chechen wars, is slowly but surely turning to the familiar, but too "forgotten" by it, south, to Central Asia. There is still hope that Kyrgyzstan will not be beyond the field of vision of Russia. Akayev's official visit to Moscow is expected in the first ten days of June, where our leader will try again to attract the attention of Russia to our problems at talks with the leadership of Russia. [quotation marks and ellipses as given] [page 11] [The `Slovo Kyrgyzstana' newspaper item was taken from the web site of the Kyrgyz news agency Kabar at 1000 gmt on 22nd May 00] Source: 'Slovo Kyrgyzstana', Bishkek, in Russian 19 May 00 p11 __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? New and Improved Yahoo! Mail - 100MB free storage! http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail