Re: [apple-crop] New Technology in Apple Scab and Fire Blight Management

[David A. Rosenberger]

It is not yet clear to me (or perhaps to anyone??) if the MateoBlue forecast 
available for an additional fee in 2016 will be an improvement over the 
Norwegian forecast (yr.no) that was used during my evaluations of 
RIMpro over the past two years. Although RIMpro was using yr.no 
for it weather forecasts, I frequently compared their predictions last year 
with those of Accuweather and of the US National Weather Service. I did not 
attempt to document similarities or differences (and the three forecast 
services often had somewhat different predictions), but my impression is that 
none of the three were very good in predicting wetting periods for the lower 
part of the Hudson Valley.  Thus, MateoBlue may or may not be an improvement 
over yr.no in terms of weather forecasts that can be linked to 
RIMpro, but I don’t really expect it to make a huge difference because I doubt 
that anyone anywhere has perfected weather algorithms enough to accurately 
predict shower activity in localized areas.

The weather algorithms used by most forecasters do petty well when there is a 
warm front or cold front that is clearly going to move through the area where 
you live. In those situations the predicted timing  4 days in advance may be 
slightly wrong, but the predicted events usually do occur, albeit sometimes 
sooner than the 4-day forecast predicted and sometimes later than the 4-day 
forecast predicted.  Forecasters do less well with the 4-day and even the 2-day 
forecasts for locations that are on the boundary areas between two moving 
fronts, and/or when wetting periods are ultimately attributable to “scattered 
showers.” Growers who need 2 or 3 days of advance warning to apply protective 
fungicide covers across all of their acreage generally will be looking at the 
4-day or 3-day forecast to make their decisions, especially if some days have 
windy conditions that interfere with spraying. Thus, I maintain that inaccurate 
weather forecasts during the prebloom period remain the primary cause for 
thousands of dollars in wasted fungicide sprays in the Hudson Valley and 
probably elsewhere.

On Feb 14, 2016, at 2:59 PM, Jon Clements 
> wrote:

Yes, and interestingly, RIMpro has plans to offer an "enhanced" weather 
forecast option (meteoblue.com) in 2016 vs. the base 
forecast (yr.no) included with RIMpro. The enhanced version will 
cost 50 euros (which is in addition to the base $200 euro RIMpro subscription). 
Users will also have the option for using meteoblue for historical as well as 
forecast data, alleviating the need for a hardware on-site weather station. My 
understanding all this is in the works, and should be available by early March 
on the RIMpro site, rimpro.eu.

Jon

On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 10:53 PM, David A. Rosenberger 
> wrote:
You can access a brief description of RIMpro in the blog commentary that I 
posted at http://blogs.cornell.edu/plantpathhvl/blog/ on Jan 21.  The blog post 
provides a link to a PDF file that contains a 3-page description of RIMpro 
along with my impressions of the program after evaluating it for two seasons.

RIMpro is a rather complex program that is not easily described in a short 
document.  If you are like me, you will have difficulty understanding how 
useful it is until you actually use it for a year or two.  It sounds simplistic 
when you you just look at a few printouts, but I found that it was really 
useful for estimating how critical the next predicted wetting period might be 
as we move through the primary apple scab season.

The RIMpro program has several weaknesses (in my opinion) which are described 
in the PDF file noted above.  The biggest problem is that RIMpro predictions 
for ascospore releases are based on weather forecasts, and the accuracy of the 
4-day or even 2-day weather forecasts in my region in spring has been dismal. 
RIMpro will provide you with an estimate of spore release that is likely to 
occur with rains predicted over the next 4-5 days, but that spore-release 
prediction will jump around as the rains approach because the weather forecasts 
jump around, sometimes in the extreme.  I found RIMpro to be a very useful 
tool, but won’t be a really great tool until weather forecasts become more 
accurate.

It is possible that in some regions, forecasts are more accurate than in the 
Hudson Valley.  Over the past few years, we seem to frequently be at the 
interface of storms that come up the coast, but then just miss us because we 
are a bit too far north and storms that come across the Great Lakes but then 
just miss us because we are a bit too far south.  As a result, over the past 
five years (roughly) we have gotten frequent predictions for major rain storms 
and spore discharge events during the prebloom period only to have the storms 
muss 

Re: [apple-crop] New Technology in Apple Scab and Fire Blight Management

[Jon Clements]

Yes, and interestingly, RIMpro has plans to offer an "enhanced" weather
forecast option (meteoblue.com) in 2016 vs. the base forecast (yr.no)
included with RIMpro. The enhanced version will cost 50 euros (which is in
addition to the base $200 euro RIMpro subscription). Users will also have
the option for using meteoblue for historical as well as forecast data,
alleviating the need for a hardware on-site weather station. My
understanding all this is in the works, and should be available by early
March on the RIMpro site, rimpro.eu.

Jon

On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 10:53 PM, David A. Rosenberger 
wrote:

> You can access a brief description of RIMpro in the blog commentary that I
> posted at http://blogs.cornell.edu/plantpathhvl/blog/ on Jan 21.  The
> blog post provides a link to a PDF file that contains a 3-page description
> of RIMpro along with my impressions of the program after evaluating it for
> two seasons.
>
> RIMpro is a rather complex program that is not easily described in a short
> document.  If you are like me, you will have difficulty understanding how
> useful it is until you actually use it for a year or two.  It sounds
> simplistic when you you just look at a few printouts, but I found that it
> was really useful for estimating how critical the next predicted wetting
> period might be as we move through the primary apple scab season.
>
> The RIMpro program has several weaknesses (in my opinion) which are
> described in the PDF file noted above.  The biggest problem is that RIMpro
> predictions for ascospore releases are based on weather forecasts, and the
> accuracy of the 4-day or even 2-day weather forecasts in my region in
> spring has been dismal. RIMpro will provide you with an estimate of spore
> release that is likely to occur with rains predicted over the next 4-5
> days, but that spore-release prediction will jump around as the rains
> approach because the weather forecasts jump around, sometimes in the
> extreme.  I found RIMpro to be a very useful tool, but won’t be a really
> great tool until weather forecasts become more accurate.
>
> It is possible that in some regions, forecasts are more accurate than in
> the Hudson Valley.  Over the past few years, we seem to frequently be at
> the interface of storms that come up the coast, but then just miss us
> because we are a bit too far north and storms that come across the Great
> Lakes but then just miss us because we are a bit too far south.  As a
> result, over the past five years (roughly) we have gotten frequent
> predictions for major rain storms and spore discharge events during the
> prebloom period only to have the storms muss us completely.  Growers apply
> fungicides based on the forecasts, but then find that those sprays served
> no purpose because it remains dry.  RIMpro will not resolve that kind of
> problem, but it will tell you what might happen if the forecasters get it
> right.
> 
> Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist,
> Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
> Cell: 845-594-3060
> 
>
> > On Feb 13, 2016, at 2:59 PM, Dennis Norton <
> dmnor...@royaloakfarmorchard.com> wrote:
> >
> > Jon,
> >
> > Being int he Midwest, I will not be able to attend the Summit. Where can
> we get more information on the RIMpro Cloud Service other than the web
> site, or should we set up an account to learn more?
> >
> > Thanks!
> >
> > Dennis Norton
> > IPM Specialist/Certified Nurseryman
> > Royal Oak Farm Orchard
> > 15908 Hebron Rd.
> > Harvard, IL 60033-9357
> > Office (815) 648-4467
> > Mobile (815) 228-2174
> > Fax (609) 228-2174
> > http://www.royaloakfarmorchard.com
> > http://www.royaloakfarmorchard.blogspot.com
> > https://www.facebook.com/royaloakfarmorchard/
> >
> > On 2/12/2016 11:07 AM, Jon Clements wrote:
> >> RIMpro Cloud Service
> >
> > ___
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>
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>



-- 
Jon Clements
aka 'Mr Honeycrisp'
UMass Cold Spring Orchard
393 Sabin St.
Belchertown, MA  01007
413-478-7219
umassfruit.com
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Re: [apple-crop] New Technology in Apple Scab and Fire Blight Management

[Dennis Norton]

Jon,

Being int he Midwest, I will not be able to attend the Summit. Where can 
we get more information on the RIMpro Cloud Service other than the web 
site, or should we set up an account to learn more?


Thanks!

Dennis Norton
IPM Specialist/Certified Nurseryman
Royal Oak Farm Orchard
15908 Hebron Rd.
Harvard, IL 60033-9357
Office (815) 648-4467
Mobile (815) 228-2174
Fax (609) 228-2174
http://www.royaloakfarmorchard.com
http://www.royaloakfarmorchard.blogspot.com
https://www.facebook.com/royaloakfarmorchard/

On 2/12/2016 11:07 AM, Jon Clements wrote:

RIMpro Cloud Service


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Re: [apple-crop] New Technology in Apple Scab and Fire Blight Management

[David A. Rosenberger]

You can access a brief description of RIMpro in the blog commentary that I 
posted at http://blogs.cornell.edu/plantpathhvl/blog/ on Jan 21.  The blog post 
provides a link to a PDF file that contains a 3-page description of RIMpro 
along with my impressions of the program after evaluating it for two seasons.  

RIMpro is a rather complex program that is not easily described in a short 
document.  If you are like me, you will have difficulty understanding how 
useful it is until you actually use it for a year or two.  It sounds simplistic 
when you you just look at a few printouts, but I found that it was really 
useful for estimating how critical the next predicted wetting period might be 
as we move through the primary apple scab season.  

The RIMpro program has several weaknesses (in my opinion) which are described 
in the PDF file noted above.  The biggest problem is that RIMpro predictions 
for ascospore releases are based on weather forecasts, and the accuracy of the 
4-day or even 2-day weather forecasts in my region in spring has been dismal. 
RIMpro will provide you with an estimate of spore release that is likely to 
occur with rains predicted over the next 4-5 days, but that spore-release 
prediction will jump around as the rains approach because the weather forecasts 
jump around, sometimes in the extreme.  I found RIMpro to be a very useful 
tool, but won’t be a really great tool until weather forecasts become more 
accurate.  

It is possible that in some regions, forecasts are more accurate than in the 
Hudson Valley.  Over the past few years, we seem to frequently be at the 
interface of storms that come up the coast, but then just miss us because we 
are a bit too far north and storms that come across the Great Lakes but then 
just miss us because we are a bit too far south.  As a result, over the past 
five years (roughly) we have gotten frequent predictions for major rain storms 
and spore discharge events during the prebloom period only to have the storms 
muss us completely.  Growers apply fungicides based on the forecasts, but then 
find that those sprays served no purpose because it remains dry.  RIMpro will 
not resolve that kind of problem, but it will tell you what might happen if the 
forecasters get it right.

Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist,
Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
Cell: 845-594-3060


> On Feb 13, 2016, at 2:59 PM, Dennis Norton  
> wrote:
> 
> Jon,
> 
> Being int he Midwest, I will not be able to attend the Summit. Where can we 
> get more information on the RIMpro Cloud Service other than the web site, or 
> should we set up an account to learn more?
> 
> Thanks!
> 
> Dennis Norton
> IPM Specialist/Certified Nurseryman
> Royal Oak Farm Orchard
> 15908 Hebron Rd.
> Harvard, IL 60033-9357
> Office (815) 648-4467
> Mobile (815) 228-2174
> Fax (609) 228-2174
> http://www.royaloakfarmorchard.com
> http://www.royaloakfarmorchard.blogspot.com
> https://www.facebook.com/royaloakfarmorchard/
> 
> On 2/12/2016 11:07 AM, Jon Clements wrote:
>> RIMpro Cloud Service
> 
> ___
> apple-crop mailing list
> apple-crop@virtualorchard.net
> http://virtualorchard.net/mailman/listinfo/apple-crop

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