I help run a large non-profit colocation and hosting center for various
groups of which an implementation of this would fit perfectly with our
mission.
If people are interested in trying this in a fully transparent method I am
willing to provide our resources and my time to make it happen.
quote who=fabio guillermo rojas
Seriously - how hard is it to set up such a market? If indeed it can lead
to better prediction of violent events, and if it is something that is
relatively easy to set up, then why not? Could this be shut down by the
Feds? Under what justifications?
Games, in
I think you could get into a whole lot of trouble since for any event you
predict that happens, if the common opinion is that you have somehow encouraged
it, the burden of proof on the civil level will effectively be on you to show
that you haven't, which of course will likely be impossible.
Could this not be an opportunity? Maybe a private sponsor could set up the
market? Fabio
On Tue, 29 Jul 2003, Robin Hanson wrote:
That sure looks like the likely outcome. We never really got a chance to
correct misconceptions about the project. (For example, it was never
intended to
[EMAIL PROTECTED] (fabio guillermo rojas) writes:
Could this not be an opportunity? Maybe a private sponsor could set up the
market? Fabio
There are nontrivial regulatory costs to doing it privately in the U.S.,
which probably became a good deal more serious now that politicians are
scared of
quote who=fabio guillermo rojas
Could this not be an opportunity? Maybe a private sponsor could set up the
market? Fabio
Fabio,
While I have privately told Robin that I do not support the implementation
of the Ideas Futures by the Pentagon, I do believe the concept of Ideas
Futures certainly
The NYT article on this
Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
By CARL HULSE
ASHINGTON, July 28 The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on
Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online
futures trading market, disclosed
In a message dated 7/29/03 4:05:03 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to
monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment.
This is typical of the statist-liberal news media--starting a news article
with an ad homenim attack.
DBL
This story has even made it to Technology news site Slashdot
(www.slashdot.org)
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=03/07/29/1249247mode=threadtid=126tid=
95
Perhaps you'd like to contribute to the discussion there to fight against
the prevailing negative mood.
Hamish
-Original Message-
Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) blogged about the DARPA project controversy:
THE PENTAGON WANTS TO USE A FUTURES MARKET
http://nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html to predict terror
attacks. Although this is getting a lot of criticism (mostly from
members of Congress who, I suspect,
All of the criticism seems based on the betting on events, not on the
use of conditional markets for developing policy. Wonder what they'll say
when they figure that bit out
On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, Robin Hanson wrote:
FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been
On Tue, 29 Jul 2003, Jeffrey Rous wrote:
I seem to remember looking at the Iowa Electronic Market right before
the 2000 election and noticing that it had Gore winning the
winner-take-all and Bush getting a higher percentage of the vote. And
I remember thinking that this was just an
More likely than not they'll say nothing and the story will quietly go away...
conveniently relieving people like reporters and senators from the need to admit they
spoke out about something they didn't have much, if any, comprehension of.
All of the criticism seems based on the betting on
On 2003-07-28, Robin Hanson uttered:
FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been
denounced by two senators:
http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html
It's still a nice plan. Much like Brunner's delphi pools in Shockwave
Rider. (BTW, if anybody ever
I've been raring to go with the pam markets for a while now --
condolences. Many people here are probably aware of it, but you can also
check out (and participate in!) the Iowa Electronic Markets online at the
University of Iowa, http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
which have a reasonable track
15 matches
Mail list logo
