Miroslav Antic
Tue, 08 Oct 2002 16:36:39 -0700
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/764526/posts San Diego Union-Tribune October 4, 2002 Will NATO Be Defeated By Demography? By Craig Romm Concerns over the next NATO enlargement ignore the fact that NATO is not actually growing. It's shrinking. Even if all eight prospective countries join the alliance, the European NATO allies will see their combined population shrink by nearly 17 million people by mid-century, according to United Nations projections. NATO is also getting older. When the alliance was formed 53 years ago, the median age was 31. Now it is 36 and rising. By 2050, it will be 44, and without the United States and Turkey, it would be 49. The inclusion of the eight new candidate countries will help to stabilize NATO's population size, but it will do nothing to halt the precipitous rise in the median age. In fact, Eastern Europe is depopulating even faster than Western Europe. The rapid aging of Europe will only deepen the age and military disparity between the United States and its allies. The United States, aside from having the most advanced military, is also among the youngest countries in the alliance. In 2050 its median age will be a lively 41. As NATO grows older, there will be fewer young people to fill military roles. The shrinking of the alliance's domestic work forces is now a demographic certainty, and the competition from the private sector will make military recruitment harder then ever before. Countries with manpower shortages may prove unwilling to commit to military confrontations, instead relying on ad hoc diplomacy and outright appeasement. There also will be no money in European budgets for militaries. The social welfare systems of the NATO countries are heavily mortgaged to cover pension and health expenditures for their rapidly aging populations. The elderly will nearly double as a share of Europe's population to 30 percent in 2050. Generous welfare state commitments will divert revenue from maintaining military preparedness and many of our European allies are likely to allow their armed forces to continue aging into obsolescence. Europe's lackluster support of U.S. military action in Kosovo and Afghanistan could be a harbinger of things to come. Under current defense spending and political trends, European allies will lack the ability, and the motivation, to influence international security. Little wonder that our allies counsel hesitation toward Iraq. NATO is getting too old to fight. Meanwhile, there is a yawning generation gap with the Third World. A report released by the Central Intelligence Agency points out that "youth bulges" often accompany political instability, ethnic wars, revolutions and anti-regime activities. Among the 25 youngest countries in the world, 16 have hosted major conflicts over the past 10 years. In contrast, of the 25 oldest countries, only Croatia has faced a major civil conflict over the same time frame. Young men with few economic opportunities are easily recruited into radical causes. Algeria, Cambodia, Northern Ireland and Iran are examples of young populations run amok. In much of the volatile Middle East, exploding birthrates have created ultra-young societies. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Pakistan all have median ages under 19, and are among the youngest and fastest-growing countries in the world. Unemployment, already a serious problem in these countries, is likely to get much worse in coming decades. A lack of economic prospects and fewer opportunities to emigrate, a byproduct of anti-terrorism, is quickly turning the region into a pressure cooker. If it explodes, will the developed world be too old to contend with it? NATO members should also make every effort to cooperate with, and influence younger countries in order to prevent them from becoming future sources of global instability. By tying the younger developing countries into global markets, they can create opportunities that diminish the appeal of radical ideology. The aging and depopulation of NATO is sure to have an impact on the future of global security. Western leaders must do all they can today to give the leaders of tomorrow the tools they will need to defend themselves. Barring a new baby boom or a wave of migration on an unprecedented scale, the demographic trends for NATO are essentially fixed. The issue of guns or grandparents must be addressed before military decline becomes irreversible. Romm is program coordinator for the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Serbian News Network - SNN [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.antic.org/