Martin J. Dixon
Fri, 22 Jun 2001 10:52:07 -0700
Jonas Mureika of the Canadian list has developed tables that allow cross sex and cross event comparisons. They can be found at this link http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/people_f.html Kirk Dillabaugh used the tables to rank the athletes competing in this week-end's Canadian champs. They are below. Note US lister Kevin Sullivan. I thought you might find of interest. Regards, Martin Heading into the National Champs here are the top performers to watch... There are some missing results I know..... ....I thought Donovan had run 10.17 - it was on the AC site last week, but not today when I started taking notes... ....I thought Macrozonaris had run 10.20, but it's not up there.... ....Joel's top time in the Steeple is listed as 8:28, but immediately under it there is an 8:22...I'm assuming there is a typo somwhere.... Therefore, in order to be consistent, I'm simply using the rankings as found on the AC website. Last year I cut off at 860 points, and it was too much, so I'm using 875 points as the cut-off this year. Enjoy, and best of luck to those competing in Edmonton. Points Name (Event - Performance) 974 Jason Tunks (DT - 67.70) 957 Brad Snyder (SP - 20.79) 956 Perdita Felecien (100H - 12.73) 942 Jeff Schiebler (10000 - 27:36.01) 931 Mark Boswell (HJ - 2.30) 931 Stephanie McCann (PV - 4.20) 928 Kevin Sullivan (MILE - 3:51.82) 924 Diane Cummins (800 - 1:59.65) 916 Jackie Honey (PV - 4.12) -- 10 -- 913 Dana Ellis (PV - 4.10) 912 Nicole Haynes (HEP - 6002) 911 Mike Nolan (DEC - 7985) 911 Carol Montgomery (10000 - 32:19.14) 909 Nicole Forrester (HJ - 1.91) 906 Zach Whitmarsh (800 - 1:46.12) 902 Wanita May (HJ - 1.90) 901 Graham Hood (MILE - 3:54.62) 900 Pierre Brown (200 - 20.57) 899 Angela Whyte (100H - 13.12) -- 20 -- 899 Tina MacDonald (DT - 59.76) 899 Tina Connelly (10000 - 32:32.52) 898 Bruny Surin (100 - 10.19) 898 Shane Niemi (400 -45.63) 897 Karlene Haughton (400H - 56.51) 896 Donovan Bailey (100 - 10.20) 896 Adrian Woodley (110H - 13.65) 894 Mike Ponikvar (HJ - 2.25) 894 Ardin Harrison (PV - 4.00) 894 Samantha George (400 - 52.02) -- 30 -- 893 Joel Bourgeois (3000S/C - 8:28.90) 890 Leah Pells (1500 - 4:09.9) 890 Courtney Babcock (5000 - 15:29.60) 889 Foy Williams (400 - 52.18) 885 LaDonna Antoine (400 - 52.28) 883 Tawa Babatunde (400H - 56.99) 882 Lisa Harvey (10000 - 32:53.54) 882 Alice Falaiye (LJ - 6.52) 880 Nick Stewart (400H - 50.26) 878 Richard Duncan (LJ - 7.91) Date: Wed, 20 Jun 2001 21:11:26 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: t-and-f: 1500 to mile conversion Hmmm.... not sure I can let all this go by without a comment. About 8 years ago (urk) I developed a formula for determining equivalent times across a variety of distances. I generated this based on the top 10 times in the world at each distance - then assumed that the average of the 10 times for each was a fair indicator of an equivalent time. For a couple of data points, this could have been skewed by a phenomenal person, such as Michael Johnson holding several of the best times for the 400 or 200 or whatever - so I took the top 10 people - not times. Anyway... Essentially here is the scoop: 1. Several years ago, I spent a lot of time researching the relationship of equivalent times to run various distances. I found that doing a regression on time vs. distance was futile. BUT... using speed vs. distance yielded a very nice formula which worked well for WRs, U.S. national records and collegiate records. 2. I backtested the model of speed vs. distance (using distance as the given and trying to predict speed) and found it did very well for post-1945 records at the 800 through the 10000. From 1964 onward it also worked well for the marathon. 3. The problem was converting it back from determining speed for a given distance back to time. This is where I started messing up with all the numbers. I (unfortunately) developed the model using miles not kilometers or meters. A hazard of living in the U.S. So the inputs are in miles and seconds. Sorry bout that.... Ambitious types can let me know how to improve it! 4. An algebraically simpler formula is: Let a = 13.49681 - 0.048865*olddist + 2.438936/(olddist**0.7905) b = 13.49681 - 0.048865*newdist + 2.438936/(newdist**0.7905) Then equivalent time for the newdist; newtime = (oldtime/olddist) * (a/b) * newdist As an example: Suppose a runner can run 3:30.0 for the 1500 meters. 1. olddist = 1500/1609 = 0.932256 miles 2. oldtime = 3*(60 sec.) + 30.0 = 210.0 seconds We want to predict an equivalent 5000 time. 3. newdist=5000/1609=3.107520 4. newtime=? To solve for ? a = 16.02925 (by plugging in the above) b = 14.34025 (again, substitute) newtime = (210.0/0.932256) * (16.02925/14.34025) * 3.107520 = 782.447 = 13:02.4 Hence, the model would say that a 3:30.0 1500 and a 13:02.4 5000 are equivalent. I apologize for the unwieldiness - this can be algebraically simplified. I hope many of you try this out! Based on this, the appropriate conversion factor for 1500 to the mile is 1.0815 - very close to Patrick Hoffman's figure. I didn't actually calculate 1600 vs. the mile, since the 1600 is only important to U.S. high schoolers - but hey - if it weren't midnight on the east coast in the U.S. I might do it now. ===== Dave Cameron [EMAIL PROTECTED] __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Jun 2001 21:17:01 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: t-and-f: OK, OK, for the meter-minded. One more point on my model: In order to make the input to the model be meters and seconds, I think you just need to change a couple of the numbers in a and b. The 0.048865 would now be 0.000030363 and the 2.438936 would be 835.7114. I'm tired - and not exactly sure if I got this exact. I've posted this model a couple of times; once in July 1995 (Wow, I've been on the list THAT long!) and once in 1998 - so I guess I'm due. I suppose I should simplify the algebra - but I have it programmed in Excel and just copied it. ===== Dave Cameron [EMAIL PROTECTED]