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Writing is on the wall for Kisanja opponents 
 
FORMIDABLE: President Museveni who has won two landslides
 

Onapito Ekomoloit - THE INSIDE PERSPECTIVE 

PRESIDENTIAL elections in other African countries during 2004 should be an 
eye-opener for those opposing ekisanja (the removal of presidential term 
limits) or the third term. They are barking up the wrong tree. 

Specifically in Malawi, Namibia and Mozambique, the ruling political parties 
won despite fielding candidates who were not incumbents. 

In Malawi, Bingu Wa Mutharika, took over the mantle from Bakili Muluzi as the 
candidate of the United Democratic Front (UDF) and romped home to victory. 

In Namibia, independence leader Sam Nujoma handed over to his look-alike 
Hifikepunye Pohamba, but still the ruling South West Africa Peoples 
Organisation (SWAPO) won handsomely. 

Similarly, Armando Guebuza took over the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) 
mantle from retiring Joachim Chissano and is set to be announced winner over 
Afonso Dhlakama of the Mozambican National Front (RENAMO). 

These victories should awaken the Ugandan opposition from the slumber of 
thinking that President Yoweri Museveniâs departure is the only thing that 
stands between them and State House. 

A discussion with any of the leading anti-ekisanja politicians shows that their 
real problem is not Museveni running again in 2006. 

They, too, know that the Presidentâs mere running would not mean him 
continuing as President. He would have to sweat it out on the campaign trail 
before the millions of Ugandans decide whether to re-hire him. 

The real crisis for the opponents of removing presidential term limits is their 
belief that they can never defeat candidate Museveni. With him having notched 
landslide victories in 1996 and 2001, Museveni has simply become unbwogable â 
unbeatable in Kenyan political speak. 

The cry against the âthird termâ is one about desperation over what to do 
with an unbeatable Museveni. The Presidentâs opponents feel so hopeless that 
the best they can hope for is to try and wish him away. 

Of course, they will allege that he cannot be defeated because he abuses the 
advantages to incumbency to steal victory. It is a leaky argument because, for 
starters, during both the 1996 and 2001 elections, the President did not win by 
100 percent. His capacity had a limit, actually declining by five percent in 
between â 75% in 1996 and 70% in 2001. 

More importantly, he consistently under-performed in mid-northern Uganda â 
scoring below 50%. Does it mean that the President selectively abused the power 
of incumbency? 

In fact, the opposition often peddles the theory that the army is the principal 
tool the President uses to steal elections, yet the north where he lost is most 
saturated with soldiers. 
The plain truth all this brings out is that Museveni remains unassailable, not 
simply because he is an incumbent. 

The Presidentâs strength is because of what he has done in the office. The 
incredible story of how he picked Uganda from political abyss, restored order 
in the country, established mass democracy, turned around the economy â and 
above all gave Ugandans hope â needs no retelling. 

But perhaps what those fixated with the Presidentâs departure should know is 
that he has over the decades done his political work in such a way that the 
people own the achievements. Museveni has become more of a symbol for the 
peopleâs aspirations â organised under the National Resistance Movement 
(NRM). 

The bad news for the ekisanja haters is that just like FRELIMO and SWAPO â 
and CCM nearby in Tanzania â the NRM will outlive its founding president. The 
parallels between the NRM and these political movements are very obvious. 

Specifically, FRELIMO, SWAPO and the NRM share the distinction of being former 
guerilla movements. They gathered massive and genuine grassroots support on 
their way to power. 

Attempts to equate these former guerilla political organisations to the likes 
of Kenyaâs defeated Kenya African National Union (KANU) widely miss the 
point. Ordinary African political parties such as KANU, Jerry Rawlingsâ 
National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Ghana, Frederick Chilubaâs Movement for 
Multiparty Democracy (MMD) in Zambia and Muluziâs UDF in Malawi, tend to have 
a weak loyalty base. Rawlingsâ party has lost two straight elections since he 
passed on the baton to Prof. Atta Mills. And going by Ugandaâs stringent 
requirement of 50% plus votes for the presidential election winner, KANU has 
lost three consecutive elections. 

Similarly, Ugandaâs Constitution would have seen both successors to Chiluba 
and Muluzi defeated â the new Presidents Levy Mwanawasa and Bingu, 
respectively scored under 40%. 

Clearly, opponents of ekisanja are not helping themselves by wasting energy on 
the person of Museveni. Naturally, they could have their day many years down 
the road, but only if they spent more time poking holes on the credibility of 
the NRM, with or without Museveni. 

Meanwhile, for those in a haste to get to State House, the best route is 
getting back into the NRM mainstream â even if it means staying in the queue. 
It is the surest ticket to State House in the foreseeable future.

Published on: Friday, 17th December, 2004
 
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