Horace Heffner
Mon, 23 Jun 2008 08:08:35 -0700
On Jun 23, 2008, at 1:31 AM, Michel Jullian wrote:
----- Original Message ----- From: "Horace Heffner" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <vortex-l@eskimo.com> Sent: Saturday, June 21, 2008 1:51 PM Subject: Re: [Vo]:Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printerOn Jun 21, 2008, at 3:12 AM, Michel Jullian wrote:Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printer presented by CEO Martin Roscheisen here, with a video: http://www.nanosolar.com/blog3/ If they sell the panels at $1/W as announced, they are aiming at a $1B annual income, not too shabby :) MichelYes, but that is just for one 1GW CIGS coater, which cost $1.65 million. On that basis, Nanosolar should be financially capable of sustaining 10x to 100x per year growth rate - until resources, like supplies, staff, land, or customers run out.True, their growth rate promises to be astronomical (Jones wouldn't agree ;)The major impediments to going all solar are bulk energy storage, i.e. large battery orhydrogen generating systems, and low cost energy transmission systems.Storage is improving, latest lithium ion batteries for electric cars with tens of thousands of cycles lifetime e.g. altairnano seem promising,
Actually, A123 has them already beat to market it appears, and Toshiba has some interfering patents. Altair stock (ALTI) is in the dumps now, under $2/shr.
couldn't utilities give rebates to customers accepting to store energy for them in their sometimes underused car batteries?
Many existing utilities will be slow to adapt smart meters, and many already resist having to manage power coming from residences. Major solar power generation utilities, however, if not hindered by regulation, are highly motivated for fast growth and innovation.
As for transmission, what's wrong with current electric power transmission lines?Michel
They don't ship power well across oceans, and don't ship energy in stored form, i.e. as hydrogen, nitrogen, or silicon compounds. The biggest cost item may soon be land itself, and 3rd world desert will be ideal for power generation. The major problems for global renewable energy production are energy storage and shipping, but these problems may be solved now the economics are right.
The content of some of my old posts on the subject are here: http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/BigPicture.pdf http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/EnergyCosts.pdf http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/Hpipeline.pdf http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/HotCold.pdfSimilar problems will exist specifically for the USA - because land and sun are best in the southern desert areas, but adequate long distance transmission facilities, in terms of either price or capacity, are not available. High voltage DC systems may provide an answer for that, but not overnight. Room temperature superconducting transmission at a low capital cost would be good, but that is not in sight yet. Hydrogen transmission systems would work well, but are probably decades off. Electrolysis itself needs a lot of improvement, though it is a viable technology now, depending on the competing cost of energy.
I expect the biggest problems and roadblocks to renewable energy development will continue to come from governments. Money for energy research and development has been allocated in mere token amounts, enough to give politicians talking points, but at less than one percent of what is needed. LENR or ZPE or other solutions might even be at hand now if enough money were spent on research, solutions which bypass the storage and shipping problems altogether.
Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/