Long before the singularity of 2029, we should be seeing "proto-AI"
machines of surprising capability, costing less than a ladies handbag
(Hermes). By 2020 the market for this kind of alter ego could be huge,
at least for the males who can avoid springing for the handbag. This
kind of early version of AI could be a paradigm shift in itself. If you
have seen the film "Her" or even the teaser for it, you will probably
better understand the sentiment expressed above.
Gamers pushed us well into teraflops power at moderate cost years ago,
and petaflops were available from IBM in 2008 at high cost - so how far
away is the hardware from the pre-singularity device? There are varying
opinions on the specs... but a petaflop - 1 quadrillion calculations per
second, could be adequate, even if requires dozens of processors...
though that is well below what a human brain can technically process
(which is roughly 40 petaflops for short periods). Most of that power is
not used by the human for "thinking" however.
The top-end gaming PC, available now, featuring 3D video at 4K
resolution puts out about 15 teraflops. The Mac Pro which came out in
2015 was capable of 7+ teraflops most of which is used for video
processing. Moore's law is still operative. To run seamless natural
language parsing, so that video feed from Cable TV, YouTube or other
sources can be analyzed for content ... that could require 100 teraflops
per feed and with fiber optics one could easily have multiple video
feeds of interest. In short, an online-AI which functions as the owners
alter-ego, should be introduced for purchase in 3-4 years for under
$15,000 and it should be petaflop capable with self-learning
capability... and very useful for online communication, despite being
well below human equivalence... and with the big advantage of 24/7
learning capability. That persistent learning capability should give the
impression that it smarter than its owner for online uses.
This proto-AI device could change society and personal relationships
even more than the smart phone - setting the stage for the singularity
in such a way that it is more palatable, especially if Scarlett's sexy
voice in included. But, as Bob Higgins sez, the timing for that is
unpredictable... and could be overly optimistic. Or not.
