Dear Alain, Thank you- Roland Benabou is indeed a very important thinker- some of his writings to be included in the *List of vital and survival knowledge **you do not learn at school*. Groupthink snd its pernicious form- group polarization. Benabou in context say with Cipolla's Laws, wicked problem, Taleb's Black Swan. A remarkable modern realist- thank you for calling my attention (again) to his ideas. As regarding how to apply Benabou's teachings for understanding Cold Fusion LENR, I prefer to discuss with you in private. Do not forget I was there from the very start and know well how to apply the 'audiatur et altera pars' principle. it is not about a black and white movie.
Peter On Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 11:46 PM, Alain Sepeda <alain.sep...@gmail.com>wrote: > is it what is called cognitive bias? > the effect our cost to change. > > However about many recent scandal, in fiance and science, I prefer the > theory of Roland Benabou (those who follow me know it is my "pet subject", > like ZPE is for some)... > i shares some ideas but goes further. > > Basically he state first, based on well know observation that we can > ignore fact that are clear, when we decide to ignore them for some > reason... (even worse than cognitive bias, since here we dont refuse to > move, we refuse to interact with facts). > > http://www.princeton.edu/~rbenabou/papers/Patterns%20of%20Denial%204l%20fin.pdf > > then he create an econometric model where he assume that people can ignore > facts when the knowledge of those fact will reduce the estimated wealth (in > real and moral assets, like money, fame, pride). > > then he compute it's consequences, and it is surprisingly enlightening, > showing surprising consequences that are observed and usually illogical if > you think people optimize their wealth > > http://www.princeton.edu/~rbenabou/papers/Patterns%20of%20Denial%204l%20fin.pdf > > it show many things, including : > - in hierarchy (of economic dependence, not necessarily orders), the > subordinates share the delusion of superior, to avoid seing how he will > lose because of his boss delusion, while he cannot escape. > - the clearer are the proof that people are in delusion, the more violent > are the group of delusionned people to defend the illusion. (see fraudster, > scam, denialist, negationist, revisionist) > - people can miss opportunity to mitigate losses, simply to avoid seing > they have lost > > it have consequences up to religious beliefs choices, perception of poor > peoples, paradoxal tax choices... and explain deep US/Europe values gap > while facts are very near. > http://www.princeton.edu/~rbenabou/papers/BJW.pdf > > about CF and other scientific delusion, you can observe how violent can be > the opposition when clear facts are presented, and how clearly stupid, > clearly illogical, clearly corrupted, and perfectly accepted they can be > (see report 41 and Science > http://www.lenrforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=451 )... quite similar to > Enron boss suicidal behavior at the end. > > Few people here really imagine how clear are the fact for a really neutral > foreigner of the domain... I always talk of "Stockholm Syndrome" because > people here play the ultra-skeptics not to believe too much in facts, but > anyone used with usual science claims, will say that it is one of the > really sure facts today, and that even the industrialist in LENR seems more > credible than many well funded startup in IT, Renewable or similar fashion > domains... the residual risk in LENR is far lower than in usual case. > > maybe we are partially delusioned because be are subordinate to the "lords > of science" that have blocked LENR for decades, and we don't want to > realize how far they have screwed us deep... > too painful to realize it. > > > 2012/9/20 Peter Gluck <peter.gl...@gmail.com> > >> We have, had and will have troubles with >> misinformation- from outside and from >> inside; therefore this paper can be of >> interest for some of our colleagues: >> >> *Misinformation: Why It Sticks and How to Fix It:* >> >> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120919191212.htm >> >> I want to emphasize it is about troubles, not problems. >> >> Peter >> >> >> -- >> Dr. Peter Gluck >> Cluj, Romania >> http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com >> >> > -- Dr. Peter Gluck Cluj, Romania http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com
