Hello all
I am again reutterating members not to make off-topic posting like this on
the list directly.
I am pretty aware, many members may not appreciate this. However, what I
have said in the past and still maintain, is to send such messages to me
first for prior approval.
Considering various factors, I may consider to post it on the list. However,
prior approval is a must.
This list has grown considerably large and hence it is vital to remain
focused.
Season's greetings to you all.
This thread is now closed for traffic.
Harish.
----- Original Message -----
From: "govind reddy" <[email protected]>
To: "accessindia" <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, April 10, 2009 5:34 AM
Subject: [AI] Fwd: Mind Tools Newsletter 124 - Dynamic Decision-Making!
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "James Manktelow, MindTools.com" <[email protected]>
Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2009 17:36:12 UT
Subject: Mind Tools Newsletter 124 - Dynamic Decision-Making!
To: [email protected]
Dynamic Decision-Making!
Mind Tools Newsletter 124 - April 7th, 2009
Contents:
What's New?
Dynamics of Decision Making
A Final Note
Welcome to our April 7th Newsletter!
How do you make decisions? Do you go with your gut? Do you gather
a few people in a room, and choose the alternative you think
would probably work best? Or, like many people, do you tend to
adopt the first reasonably good solution you identify?
If the impact of your decision is relatively minor, then these
methods may be adequate. However, if the decision you need to
make is complex and potentially risky, then it's usually better
to use a systematic approach.
What's New?
This week's article, looking at the Dynamics of Decision Making,
introduces you to an organized and effective decision-making
process that will help improve the quality of your decisions. In
it, we outline the six steps you need to take to create the right
environment for making the decision, and check that the outcome
is absolutely the right one for you and your organization.
In our second article this week, we look at Overcoming
Information Overload. In it, we equip you with strategies for
controlling the different types of information that bombard your
daily life. We hope this helps you become even more focused and
decisive!
Enjoy this newsletter!
James & Rachel
James Manktelow & Rachel Thompson
To find out about new tools on the Mind Tools site the moment
they’re uploaded, click here
<http://www.mindtools.com/import.rss> to subscribe to the Mind
Tools RSS feed (you'll need an RSS newsreader installed), or
here <http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/AboutRSS.htm> to
find out more about RSS.
Editors' Choice Article:
Dynamics of Decision Making
Making Better and More Consistent Decisions
As a valued team member in your organization, you probably make
decisions every day. Some decisions are relatively
straightforward and simple: Who should serve on the quality
assurance committee? Others are quite complex: To improve
quality, should we switch to a new manufacturing process?
The first decision will impact people's workloads, and some
people might be disappointed when they aren't chosen. However,
you know the strengths of individual members of your team, so you
can put together a good committee.
On the other hand, changing a manufacturing process is a very
complicated decision. You will have to consider what new
processes are available. How much will the change cost? When will
you see a return on your investment? How large will that return
be? How long will it take to train people to use the new system?
What impact will there be on our customers? And how will this
affect our supplier relationships?
Simple decisions usually need a simple decision-making process.
But difficult decisions typically involve issues like these:
- Uncertainty - Many facts may not be known.
- Complexity - You have to consider many interrelated factors.
- High-risk consequences - The impact of the decision may be
significant.
- Alternatives - Each has its own set of uncertainties and
consequences.
- Interpersonal issues - It can be difficult to predict how other
people will react.
With these difficulties in mind, the best way to make a complex
decision is to use an effective process. Clear processes usually
lead to consistent, high-quality results, and they can improve
the quality of almost everything we do. In this article, we
outline a process that will help improve the quality of your
decisions.
A Systematic Approach to Decision Making
A logical and systematic decision-making process helps you
address the critical elements that result in a good decision. By
taking an organized approach, you're less likely to miss
important factors, and you can build on the approach to make your
decisions better and better.
There are six steps to making an effective decision:
1. Create a constructive environment.
2. Generate good alternatives.
3. Explore these alternatives.
4. Choose the best alternative.
5. Check your decision.
6. Communicate your decision, and take action.
Here are the steps in detail:
Step 1: Create a constructive environment
To create a constructive environment for successful decision
making, make sure you do the following:
- Establish the objective - Define what you want to achieve.
- Agree on the process - Know how the final decision will be
made, including whether it will be an individual or a team-based
decision. The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_91.htm> (member
only) is a great tool for determining the most appropriate way of
making the decision.
- Involve the right people - Stakeholder Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newPPM_07.htm> is
important in making an effective decision, and you'll want to
ensure that you've consulted stakeholders appropriately even if
you're making an individual decision. Where a group process is
appropriate, the decision-making group - typically a team of five
to seven people - should have a good representation of
stakeholders.
- Allow opinions to be heard - Encourage participants to
contribute to the discussions, debates, and analysis without any
fear of rejection from the group. This is one of the best ways to
avoid groupthink
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newLDR_82.htm> (member
only). The Stepladder Technique
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_89.htm> is a
useful method for gradually introducing more and more people to
the group discussion, and making sure everyone is heard. Also,
recognize that the objective is to make the best decision under
the circumstances: it's not a game in which people are competing
to have their own preferred alternatives adopted.
- Make sure you're asking the right question - Ask yourself
whether this is really the true issue. The 5 Whys
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_5W.htm> technique
is a classic tool that helps you identify the real underlying
problem that you face.
- Use creativity tools from the start - The basis of creativity
is thinking from a different perspective. Do this when you first
set out the problem, and then continue it while generating
alternatives. Our article Generating New Ideas
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_88.htm> will help
you create new connections in your mind, break old thought
patterns, and consider new perspectives.
Step 2: Generate Good Alternatives
This step is still critical to making an effective decision. The
more good options you consider, the more comprehensive your final
decision will be.
When you generate alternatives, you force yourself to dig deeper,
and look at the problem from different angles. If you use the
mindset ‘there must be other solutions out there,' you're more
likely to make the best decision possible. If you don't have
reasonable alternatives, then there's really not much of a
decision to make!
Here's a summary of some of the key tools and techniques to help
you and your team develop good alternatives.
Generating Ideas
- Brainstorming <http://www.mindtools.com/brainstm.html> is
probably the most popular method of generating ideas.
- Another approach, Reverse Brainstorming
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_96.htm>, works
similarly. However, it starts by asking people to brainstorm how
to achieve the opposite outcome from the one wanted, and then
reversing these actions.
- The Charette Procedure
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_90.htm> is a
systematic process for gathering and developing ideas from very
many stakeholders.
Use the Crawford Slip Writing Technique
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_95.htm> (member
only) to generate ideas from a large number of people. This is an
extremely effective way to make sure that everyone's ideas are
heard and given equal weight, irrespective of the person's
position or power within the organization.
Considering Different Perspectives
- The Reframing Matrix
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_05.htm> uses 4 Ps
(product, planning, potential, and people) as the basis for
gathering different perspectives. You can also ask outsiders to
join the discussion, or ask existing participants to adopt
different functional perspectives (for example, have a marketing
person speak from the viewpoint of a financial manager).
- If you have very few options, or an unsatisfactory alternative,
use a Concept Fan
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_06.htm> to take a
step back from the problem, and approach it from a wider
perspective. This often helps when the people involved in the
decision are too close to the problem.
- Appreciative Inquiry
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_85.htm> forces you
to look at the problem based on what's ‘going right,' rather
than what's ‘going wrong.'
Organizing Ideas
This is especially helpful when you have a large number of ideas.
Sometimes separate ideas can be combined into one comprehensive
alternative.
Use Affinity Diagrams
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_86.htm> to
organize ideas into common themes and groupings.
Step 3: Explore the Alternatives
When you're satisfied that you have a good selection of
realistic alternatives, then you'll need to evaluate the
feasibility, risks, and implications of each choice. Here, we
discuss some of the most popular and effective analytical tools.
Risk
In decision making, there's usually some degree of uncertainty,
which inevitably leads to risk. By evaluating the risk involved
with various options, you can determine whether the risk is
manageable.
- Risk Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_07.htm> helps you
look at risks objectively. It uses a structured approach for
assessing threats, and for evaluating the probability of events
occurring - and what they might cost to manage.
Implications
Another way to look at your options is by considering the
potential consequences of each.
- Six Thinking Hats
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_07.htm> helps you
evaluate the consequences of a decision by looking at the
alternatives from six different perspectives.
Impact Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_96.htm> (member
only) is a useful technique for brainstorming the ‘unexpected'
consequences that may arise from a decision.
Validation
Determine if resources are adequate, if the solution matches your
objectives, and if the decision is likely to work in the long
term.
- Starbursting
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_91.htm> helps you
think about the questions you should ask to evaluate an
alternative properly.
- To assess pros and cons of each option, use Force Field
Analysis <http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm>,
or use the Plus-Minus-Interesting
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_05.htm> approach.
- Cost-Benefit Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_08.htm> looks at
the financial feasibility of an alternative.
- Our Bite-Sized Training session on Project Evaluation and
Financial Forecasting
<http://www.mindtools.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=960> (member
only) helps you evaluate each alternative using the most popular
financial evaluation techniques.
Step 4: Choose the Best Alternative
After you have evaluated the alternatives, the next step is to
choose between them. The choice may be obvious. However, if it
isn't, these tools will help:
- Grid Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_03.htm>, also
known as a decision matrix, is a key tool for this type of
evaluation. It's invaluable because it helps you bring disparate
factors into your decision-making process in a reliable and
rigorous way.
- Use Paired Comparison Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_02.htm> to
determine the relative importance of various factors. This helps
you compare unlike factors, and decide which ones should carry
the most weight in your decision.
- Decision Trees
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_04.htm> are also
useful in choosing between options. These help you lay out the
different options open to you, and bring the likelihood of
project success or failure into the decision making process.
For group decisions, there are some excellent evaluation methods
available.
When decision criteria are subjective and it's critical that you
gain consensus, you can use techniques like Nominal Group
Technique <http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_98.htm>
(member only) and Multi-Voting
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMM_97.htm> (member
only). These methods help a group agree on priorities, for
example, so that they can assign resources and funds.
The Delphi Technique
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_95.htm> (member
only) uses multiple cycles of anonymous written discussion and
argument, managed by a facilitator. Participants in the process
do not meet, and sometimes they don't even know who else is
involved. The facilitator controls the process, and manages the
flow and organization of information. This is useful where you
need to bring the opinions of many different experts into the
decision-making process. It's particularly useful where some of
these experts don't get on!
Step 5: Check Your Decision
With all of the effort and hard work that goes into evaluating
alternatives, and deciding the best way forward, it's easy to
forget to ‘sense check' your decisions. This is where you look
at the decision you're about to make dispassionately, to make
sure that your process has been thorough, and to ensure that
common errors haven't crept into the decision-making process.
After all, we can all now see the catastrophic consequences that
over-confidence, groupthink, and other decision-making errors
have wrought on the world economy.
The first part of this is an intuitive step, which involves
quietly and methodically testing the assumptions and the
decisions you've made against your own experience, and
thoroughly reviewing and exploring any doubts you might have.
A second part involves using a technique like Blindspot Analysis
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_90.htm> (member
only) to review whether common decision-making problems like
over-confidence, escalating commitment, or groupthink
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newLDR_82.htm> (member
only) may have undermined the decision-making process.
A third part involves using a technique like the Ladder of
Inference <http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_91.htm>
(member only) to check through the logical structure of the
decision with a view to ensuring that a well-founded and
consistent decision emerges at the end of the decision-making
process.
Step 6: Communicate Your Decision, and Move to Action!
Once you've made your decision, it's important to explain it to
those affected by it, and involved in implementing it. Talk about
why you chose the alternative you did. The more information you
provide about risks and projected benefits, the more likely
people are to support the decision.
And with respect to implementation of your decision, our articles
on Project Management
<http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newPPM_00.htm> and Change
Management <http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newPPM_87.htm>
(member only) will help you get this implementation off to a good
start!
Key Points
An organized and systematic decision-making process usually leads
to better decisions. Without a well-defined process, you risk
making decisions that are based on insufficient information and
analysis. Many variables affect the final impact of your
decision. However, if you establish strong foundations for
decision making, generate good alternatives, evaluate these
alternatives rigorously, and then check your decision-making
process, you will improve the quality of your decisions.
"Member only" articles are available to members of the Career
Excellence Club, Mind Tools' members' area. Click here
<www.mindtools.com/rs/CXC> to find out more about the Career
Excellence Club.
A Final Note from James
All-in-all, it takes a lot of hard work to make a good decision,
but I hope that our article on the Dynamics of Decision Making
has given you the tools to be more confident and focused when
choosing the best alternative.
Coming up in two weeks’ time, we look at how you can support and
encourage learning in your workplace. And we'll look at how, by
working with interns, you can boost productivity in your
workplace at the same time that you help someone get a good start
in his or her career.
Have a great two weeks!
James
James Manktelow
email us at
<http://www.mindtools.com/php/eprocess.php?e=rdqnewsletter>
Mind Tools
Essential Skills for an Excellent Career!
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please tell them about it! Just go to
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