Hi everyone,

We have been experiencing an unusual discrepancy in our Google Ads accounts 
over the past two weeks. Specifically: the number of Conversions shown *in 
Google Ads* is significantly *higher* than what we actually uploaded via 
the Upload / Offline Conversions feature (with valid GCLIDs etc.). Until 
recently, the upload numbers were always equal to or higher than what the 
Ads reporting showed (accounting for rejected uploads, “expired_event”, 
etc.).

We are aware that Google uses modelling (conversion estimation) in 
scenarios like Consent Mode for pixel/tag-based conversions when cookies 
are declined. However, to our knowledge, modelling has never been applied 
to *Upload / Offline Conversions* in this way: i.e. Google *inventing* 
(estimating) Conversions beyond what was uploaded, to compensate for lost 
data under cookie/privacy restrictions.

Has anyone else observed this behavior recently? Specifically:

   - 
   
   Do you see Ads reporting *more Conversions* than the number you uploaded?
   - 
   
   Has this changed in the last few weeks for your accounts?
   - 
   
   Have you found any official statements or documentation indicating that 
   Google now applies modelling to Upload / Offline Conversions?
   
Any insights, screenshots, or diagnostic findings would be extremely 
helpful. Thanks in advance for your help!

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