William: I agree with most of your points. I would quibble with your
assertion that in "science there are facts". That may be true in the
prestigious "hard sciences" but in social science and I suspect in medicine,
we are reduced to examining/dealing with probabilities: 79% of patients with
that diagnosis die within X years. Unless you would assert that a
probability is a fact - it would be a somewhat different fact than the
temperature at which water boils or when "Guernica" was completed.
Geoff C
From: William Conger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: "Certainty"
Date: Sat, 1 Nov 2008 10:43:25 -0700 (PDT)
One sort of certainty is a condition of belief even though belief can never
be certain in a worldly sense because it can't be objectified.
Certainty is affected by whatever is said to be certain. As Geoff says,
the thing measured affects the results of measurement.
It is statistically certain that I will die even though death itself is an
uncertain condition (no one can say-- or ever said -- for sure what it is
to be dead).
In science there are facts, not certainties. Facts may change if the
conditions defining them change. There are also observed probabilities,
norms, that stand in for facts which stand in for certainties which stand
in for beliefs.
The brain likes certainty gained through experiences both first and second
hand and settles for beliefs, facts, probabilities. We may have evolved
some genes that build in preference for some beliefs, thus saving us the
trouble of sticking our heads into blazing fire to see what happens.
The subjective certainty (beliefs) has only probable, statistical,
correspondence to objective facts. unknowable because changeable facts are
That's as close as we get to pure objectivity. Certainty is, therefore,
taken as analogous to facts -- what works in specific conditions.
Shoot that down. With certainty.
WC
--- On Sat, 11/1/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: Re: "Certainty"
> To: [email protected]
> Date: Saturday, November 1, 2008, 11:57 AM
> In a message dated 11/1/08 12:18:48 PM,
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
>
>
> > Cheerskep: Sure. Setting up more smoke screen, I can
> see. You'll be able to
> > shoot down all offerings.
> >
> Geoff, you're a psychologist. You have to know how much
> the possibility of
> progress between disputants (e.g. a man and wife, or Palin
> and her critics) is
> hampered when, instead of addressing what the first guy has
> just said, the
> second guy dismissively imputes a despicable motive to the
> first guy.
>
> You're diametrically wrong to suggest I want to throw
> up a smoke screen. My
> aim is consistently to blow smoke away.
>
> And you're also very wrong if you think my motivation
> on the forum is a
> delight I get from "shooting down all offerings".
> It isn't. I wish gummed-up
> offerings never hit the forum in the first place. Look back
> at the assertions you
> yourself have taken exception to on the forum. Were you
> doing that solely for
> the satisfaction of shooting something down?
>
> Besides, if you to tell us what you have in mind when you
> use the word
> 'certainty', unless the notion has blatant internal
> inconsistencies, no one can
> prove you "wrong". And at the very least it will
> give us a better idea what you're
> talking about. I confess that often when I've examined
> closely some notion
> I've been entertaining, only then did I discover how
> fuzzy it was.
>
> ***
> I had written:
>
> The word 'certainty' is now being used on the forum
> by folks who have not
> described their notion when they use the word. Try
> describing it, gang. You won't
> find it easy.
>
> The reasons for describing what you have in mind are,
> first, that, without
> making your notion serviceably clear, you may be talking
> past each other -- i.e.
> each has a different idea of what's at issue. Second,
> you may discover your
> unexamined notion is fatally fuzzy.
>
> Still, when you use the word, you tend to think you have a
> serviceably
> clear notion in mind, so take why not a shot at it?
>
>
>
> **************
> Plan your next getaway with AOL Travel. Check out
> Today's Hot
> 5 Travel Deals!
>
(http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212416248x1200771803/aol?redir=http://travel.aol.com/discount-travel?ncid=emlcntustrav00000001)
