Hard to judge fatality rate when new cases are just starting to rise
in a country. They may be undercounting the cases because, like you
say, they haven’t been testing. On the other hand, maybe the people
haven’t had it long enough to die yet.
Maybe these mystery cases ate bat or pangolin. Just kidding. But you
almost have to wonder if there have always been a certain number of
people with this or a related coronavirus and we are only finding out
because we are testing now. No, that sounds like a conspiracy theory.
More likely someone who travelled to Italy or Iran sneezed on them.
With the virus living for up to 9 days on surfaces, could money become
a vehicle for transmission? I know lots of people use cards or their
phones to pay for everything, but this could be the death of paper
money and coins. Think where that stuff has been. But on the other
hand, the virus is spreading like crazy in mostly cashless countries.
Oh, and I saw that a patient in Washington state has died. No details.
*From:* AF <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Saturday, February 29, 2020 12:57 PM
*To:* [email protected]
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool
Interesting that the fatalities in China are around 3.4%, yet the
fatalities outside China are only .1%.
Listening to the news this morning, it's become apparent that outside
of China, no one was prepared, and that they really have not been
testing. Problems with test kits; like they were not working
correctly, and secondly, no one was testing.
I believe (now) that this virus has already spanned the globe, and the
major saving grace is that 80% of the cases are mild or asymptomatic.
it is, after all, just another corona virus. New or not, we deal with
viruses like it all the time.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 2/29/2020 10:40 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
From WHO statement yesterday:
“Outside China, there are now 4351 cases in 49 countries, and 67
deaths.
Since yesterday, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Netherlands and
Nigeria have all reported their first cases. All these cases have
links to Italy.
24 cases have been exported from Italy to 14 countries, and 97
cases have been exported from Iran to 11 countries.
The continued increase in the number of cases, and the number of
affected countries over the last few days, are clearly of concern.”
Thanks, Italy and Iran.
China numbers are looking promising, but Italy 300 new cases and
South Korea 900. Number of countries with confirmed cases is
around 60.
I see the photos from places like China and S. Korea with soldiers
spraying public places with disinfectant, and the steps takeout
food places and stores are taking to avoid transmission, and I
wonder if that is feasible here.
Meanwhile S. Korea has tested 35,000 people, the US has tested
400. Shortage of test kits, and guidelines to only test people
who have travelled to China. If you can believe the Internet
(stupid question) Hong Kong is even testing pets. We don’t even
have enough kits to test people.
*From:* AF <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Saturday, February 29, 2020 11:54 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool
Where are they popping up everywhere?
On Sat, Feb 29, 2020, 11:39 AM Robert Andrews
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
That's very realistic. Local outbreaks are popping up
everywhere now
and it's the tip of the iceberg.
On 02/29/2020 07:35 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
> It’s about a 20 day boat trip. And even if it comes by air
it will sit
> at the distributor for a bit. Then a few days in transit to you.
>
> We will probably quarantine Chinese stock for a week or two
just to be
> safe.
>
> I’m more worried about the local out breaks and stock
shortages than
> contamination of stock.
>
> On Feb 29, 2020, at 10:28 AM, Robert <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
> <mailto:[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>> wrote:
>
>> Covid-19 is active for 9 days on cardboard and plastic.
Hopefully it
>> arrives more slowly than that.
>>
>> On 2/29/20 7:21 AM, [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]> wrote:
>>> Our boards shipped last week. So I think things will be
OK hopefully.
>>> *From:* Forrest Christian (List Account)
>>> *Sent:* Friday, February 28, 2020 5:38 PM
>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool
>>> Every couple of months a question about "is there anywhere
I can get
>>> unpopulated circuit boards manufactured at a reasonable
price outside
>>> mainland china?" comes up on a couple of forums/mailing
lists I'm
>>> on. The answer always turns out to be no. It's amazing
that
>>> somewhere else hasn't figured out how to replicate what
China is
>>> doing as far as the circuit boards go, even if it was
double the
>>> price. For comparison, US suppliers are typically over
20 times the
>>> price - a board that is under a dollar each from China can
cost $20
>>> to get made in the USA.
>>> So, like everyone else, our blank circuit boards come from
a supplier
>>> in China. Right now, things are backlogged, but it looks
like
>>> they're close to caught up. In an abundance of caution,
we went
>>> ahead and pulled in 6 months worth for anything we're
currently
>>> shipping, so they'll be here in the next few weeks and we
don't have
>>> to worry so much. We haven't inserted an order for the
new Base 3
>>> boards yet, but we expect by the time we do sometime next
week that
>>> the backlog will be largely cleared from our preferred
supplier in China.
>>> On Fri, Feb 28, 2020 at 5:12 PM Lewis Bergman
>>> <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
wrote:
>>>
>>> Probably not. It has taken decades for China to build
the supply
>>> chain they have. Some countries, like Vietnam, don't
have the
>>> infrastructure, much less the slip set to do it
>>> I don't doubt they will start planning to diversify,
but doing it
>>> is years away.
>>> On Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 5:49 PM Steve Jones
>>> <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I have a suspicion that very soon, one or two
major companies
>>> will announce contracts to move production to another
>>> country, like within the next two weeks. Many
other will
>>> follow suit, diversity in production is probably
going to
>>> decimate the chinese economy.
>>> I expect an unrelated announcement this weekend
that will
>>> quell the downward spiral, a short recovery on monday.
>>> Within a week or so the administration will
temporarily ease
>>> tarriffs on humanitarian reasons
>>> By the end of march I think even if the kungflu is
still
>>> present, it will be less impactful.
>>> Recoveries are outpacing deaths now 2:1, new
infections are
>>> beginning to stagnate. we will see a bump as more
>>> surveillance comes on board, its loose in
california, and
>>> they poop on the streets, so there will be some
controlled
>>> outbreaks there, no worse than hepatitis, but the
plateau is
>>> here, excluding some major calamity, like an
outbreak in
>>> mexico (this will have major geopolitical
consequence that
>>> will heavily reflect in the markets). its probably
going to
>>> do some harm in africa with the locusts, but i
dont know that
>>> africa really impacts markets, they still have
ebola running
>>> around.
>>> By the end of march, the market will be on the
rebound, early
>>> april it will pass 30, that will drive an april
speculative
>>> growth between 33 and 35 that will correct back
down to 29-31
>>> in may.
>>> around this time production will be back to
normal, and the
>>> reorganized sourcing will be coming on line and
the vaccine
>>> will be moving to the next stage
>>> supply chain disruptions will be recovering
>>> china will be starving, but humanitarian aid will give
>>> everybody a gleeful feeling of global unity.
>>> On Fri, Feb 28, 2020 at 5:28 PM <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I should have moved it, but I will take the roller
>>> coaster ride. And it was up so high too....
>>> *From:* Matt Hoppes
>>> *Sent:* Friday, February 28, 2020 3:58 PM
>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool
>>> Let it keep going down! I moved everything to
Money
>>> Market Monday. Once it bottoms out I’ll stick
it back in
>>> stocks.
>>>
>>> On Feb 28, 2020, at 6:45 PM, Darin Steffl
>>> <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I just wanna know when we hit rock bottom so
I can buy
>>>> as much up as possible :)
>>>> On Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 4:38 PM
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> How long before the stock market
recovers. Stats
>>>> would suggest 4 months.
>>>> But if the virus actually becomes a
“thing”, like
>>>> the sky is falling thing, I am sure that
will
>>>> extend this correction.
>>>> --
>>>> AF mailing list
>>>> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>>>
>>>> --
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>>>
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>>> --
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>>>
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