If you look at the numbers from China nCOV seems to have a mortality rate of ~~ 3.4%. Based on comments from the CDC, they think the total infections in China is understated by a factor of 2 to 5, which would put the mortality rate more in the neighborhood of .7% to 1.4%.
I still think the infected numbers in the US "should be" in the many hundreds, or more likely in the several thousands.
Part of the problem is that there seems to be a huge number of people who are infected or at least carriers who don't show any symptoms. I would call this bad news that is probably more like good news.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/2/2020 1:03 PM, Lewis Bergman
wrote:
The elderly are very vulnerable to flu death, which seems to be the case with Covid-19 if you listen to the CDC. A vast majority of deaths are with people suffering from other respiratory issues. When I was serving on a hospital board the census count had a line for Elderly repritory and it was always about a third of people in the hospital at a minimum. Sometimes, they were the only ones there in that small rural hospital.
On Mon, Mar 2, 2020 at 2:27 PM Harold Bledsoe <hbledso...@gmail.com> wrote:
--I'm currently in the overreaction camp. I found this article quite illuminating about flu in Connecticut:
"10,286 people have tested positive for the flu this season" (in CT)"2,230 people in Connecticut has been hospitalized due to flu this season""The latest group of flu-associated deaths brings the total of deaths this season to 58" (in CT)
That's a higher hospitalization rate than I was expecting.
We've had flu going around killing "at-risk" folks and other unlucky healthy people for quite a while so no one really pays that much attention to it unless you are at risk. I'd even wager that once a vaccine is available next year after this mania passes, less than half of folks will bother to get it (similar to flu vaccine).
I do feel like the coverage is a bit over the top. As someone else mentioned earlier, it is like when a hurricane is coming and you are in the 1000 mile cone of uncertainty - it's all the news folks talk about and the only time anyone watches the weather channel. ;-). We humans love us some drama!
Just do what you would do to avoid the flu and you'll probably be OK.
On Mon, Mar 2, 2020 at 1:27 PM Matt Hoppes <mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net> wrote:
I never complained about what China did. I said it’s a bit extreme for the flu, don’t you think?
I don’t think this is “just the flu, bro”.
> On Mar 2, 2020, at 11:33 AM, Adam Moffett <dmmoff...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Matt, I honestly am unsure where you really stand. It seems like you complain about a Draconian response in China while advocating one here. I don't get it.
>
>
>> On 3/2/2020 11:26 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
>> Agreed.
>>
>> We should have shut down our borders 3 months ago when this first broke out in China... immediately. No in or outbound travel of any sort.
>>
>> Instead, we continued to allow folks to come and go as they pleased... finally shutting down travel to China, but continuing to allow travel to our nations, that are now infected.
>>
>> How stupid are we to think that blocking travel to just China would fix the issue? That folks in China wouldn't contaminate folks in other countries who would then be the route to the US?
>>
>> We need to immediately quarantine every state, if not town in the US, and hold that quarantine for 60-90 days. No coming or going from the town. Work from home.
>>
>> Yes, maybe it's "no bad yet", but why do we need to wait for it to get bad before we do something?
>>
>> Here in the US we continually shut the barn door after the horse has gone through. Often we shut a door specific for a kind of horse after that horse has gone through, allowing other horses to continue to get through.
>>
>>
>>
>>> On 3/2/20 11:20 AM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>>> ....or we could advocate calm and rational responses instead of all that stuff.
>>>
>>>> On 3/2/2020 11:09 AM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>>> The problem is the existing plague plans are being shut down by localities refusing to let them utilize spaces as was the design. Any place that refuses should never be allotted a single penny of federal funding for anything.
>>>> they have what, like 10k beds in the CDC quarantines.
>>>> There is no viable solution for a major outbreak in a city like chicago beyond patriots putting a fireline around the city and shooting anybody who tries to exit. Is what it is. Hopefully of it gets boogity, every town closes their highway off-ramps. If the media has their way with getting the hype up, the spread will be crazy from people fanning out rather than seeking care.
>>>> Thermal scopes on AR-15s are probably going to be a thing soon
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Mar 2, 2020 at 10:01 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com <mailto:af...@kwisp.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Maybe they can send it to us. Today for the first time I heard
>>>> the term “surge capacity” applied to hospital beds. Person was
>>>> saying US healthcare industry has made hospitals efficient same
>>>> way as airlines, aim for zero empty beds, with the result that
>>>> there’s not much surge capacity. Let’s hope somebody’s looking at
>>>> ways to open up more facilities in areas where outbreaks happen. The Chinese weren’t stupid with their modular approach to quickly
>>>> creating a field hospital. Reminds me of MASH. Time for a bug out!
>>>>
>>>> I did a quick Google search for “hospital surge capacity” and the
>>>> first page of results were mostly studies after Katrina. A
>>>> hurricane is worse because it closes down hospitals and
>>>> pharmacies, eliminating capacity. With the coronavirus what I
>>>> suspect we need to guard against is infecting all the hospital
>>>> staff and first responders so they get quarantined. This appears
>>>> to be happening with that nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. 25 firefighters are now quarantined as a precaution because they
>>>> had been to that facility.
>>>>
>>>> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com
>>>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
>>>> *Sent:* Monday, March 2, 2020 8:44 AM
>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com
>>>> <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: Corona-fu
>>>>
>>>> Chinas closing their first hospital they built since they dont
>>>> have enough patients
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Mar 2, 2020, 8:42 AM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com
>>>> <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Perish the thought! 3-hour-old baguettes! I would rather die
>>>> from COVID-19 before eating an old baguette!
>>>>
>>>> If I smoke another cigarette, I can aggravate my COPD and
>>>> hasten the end.
>>>>
>>>> bp
>>>>
>>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 3/2/2020 5:57 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Well, the French are screwed, they don’t even stock food
>>>> for tonight’s dinner. Because who wants to eat 2 hour old
>>>> baguettes. Probably the only thing in their pantry is
>>>> cigarettes and wine. But at least if these are the end
>>>> times, they have cigarettes and wine while they watch the
>>>> end. Who cares about Spam and Vienna sausages.
>>>>
>>>> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com>
>>>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Adam Moffett
>>>> *Sent:* Monday, March 2, 2020 6:25 AM
>>>> *To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: Corona-fu
>>>>
>>>> You need the disaster to occur to justify all your
>>>> preparation. Some part of you is rooting for it.
>>>>
>>>> Just a hypothesis.
>>>>
>>>> On 3/1/2020 10:15 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>>>
>>>> i never understood it, on the right, we tend to be the
>>>> most prepared. most of the die hard preppers are right
>>>> minded. we tend to be the most capable of utilizing
>>>> primal tools and food/water sources. if it goes
>>>> boogity, we have the best firepower and ammunition and
>>>> training. so i never understood why people on the
>>>> right get very nervous about these things. a lot like
>>>> devout christians worying about end times and rapture.
>>>>
>>>> On Sun, Mar 1, 2020 at 8:09 PM Chuck McCown
>>>> <ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> My oldest home - again son is much worse than you
>>>> guys. He is very alt right too. He might be Alex
>>>> Jones... I have never seen them both at the same
>>>> place at the same time. He is certain Kung flu is
>>>> gonna get us all.
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>>
>>>> On Mar 1, 2020, at 6:14 PM, Mark - Myakka
>>>> Technologies <m...@mailmt.com
>>>> <mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> On a side note. Thanks for letting me rant
>>>> and rave here. Can't do it at home, wife just
>>>> rolls eyes and tells me I'm a grumpy old man.
>>>> Chuck, I know you are saving me a few $ in
>>>> therapy. So, Thank You.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Best regards,
>>>> Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
>>>>
>>>> Myakka Technologies, Inc.
>>>> www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
>>>>
>>>> ------
>>>>
>>>> Sunday, March 1, 2020, 7:47:53 PM, you wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> OK, maybe this is hysterical reporting (it’s
>>>> from Washington Post after all), but sounds
>>>> kind of science-y.
>>>>
>>>> The novel coronavirus has probably been
>>>> spreading undetected for about six weeks in
>>>> Washington state, where the first U.S. death
>>>> was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis
>>>> suggests that the cases are linked through
>>>> community transmission and that this has been
>>>> going on for weeks, with hundreds of
>>>> infections likely in the state.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:*AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com
>>>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf
>>>> Of *Ken Hohhof
>>>> *Sent:* Sunday, March 1, 2020 6:21 PM
>>>> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
>>>> <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: Corona-fu
>>>>
>>>> Must be a Florida thing, or a Walmart thing. I have not seen news reports anything close to
>>>> “we are all going to die”.
>>>>
>>>> And I just stopped at the grocery store, no
>>>> signs at all of people buying up all the Lysol
>>>> and Purell. I did buy a couple of the pump
>>>> bottles of foaming hand soap we like, but the
>>>> shelf was full. News reports have said wash
>>>> your hands and that it’s good advice for
>>>> seasonal flu as well, I don’t think that’s
>>>> doomsday advice.
>>>>
>>>> I have not checked Walmart, maybe things are
>>>> all crazy there (as usual). Actually I have
>>>> to admit that I recently discovered the steaks
>>>> from Walmart are actually pretty good, they
>>>> were branded Tyson Fresh Meats.
>>>>
>>>> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com
>>>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf
>>>> Of *Mark - Myakka Technologies
>>>> *Sent:* Sunday, March 1, 2020 5:53 PM
>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>> <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: Corona-fu
>>>>
>>>> There are only a few things we know for sure.
>>>>
>>>> 1. It is already in the US
>>>> 2. More people in the US will get it
>>>> 3. More people in the US will die.
>>>>
>>>> Anything other than this is pure speculation
>>>> at this point. We don't know anything about
>>>> this virus. Most everything I hear or read
>>>> about this virus starts off with the
>>>> equivalent of "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE". But
>>>> if you bother to listen or read the article,
>>>> it always has "may" or "some experts". The
>>>> current official incubation period is 2-14
>>>> days, but hey lets just report 14 days and
>>>> base all our models on this and report it as
>>>> the most likely scenario. We don't know how
>>>> long it lives on surfaces. We don't know how
>>>> it reacts to UV light. We don't know how it
>>>> will do in warm/humid conditions.
>>>>
>>>> My opinion (just as valid as anyone else's),
>>>> This virus has been in the states before the
>>>> first reported case. People have had it and
>>>> recovered thinking it was just the flu. Not
>>>> everyone exposed is going to get it. Not
>>>> everyone who gets it is going to need to be
>>>> hospitalized. Not everyone who gets
>>>> hospitalized will die.
>>>>
>>>> The media once again is doing us a huge
>>>> dis-service. They are hyping this thing way
>>>> out of proportion. Was at Wal-mart yesterday.
>>>> Every can of Lysol or Lysol type of product
>>>> was gone. Every package of disinfectant wipes
>>>> were gone. Every bottle of any sized hand
>>>> sanitizer, gone. Crazy. The closest reported
>>>> "maybe" case is over 1300 miles away. God
>>>> forbid we get a reported case in Florida, what
>>>> will happen then? Going to start burning and
>>>> looting?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Best regards,
>>>> Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
>>>>
>>>> Myakka Technologies, Inc.
>>>> www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
>>>>
>>>> ------
>>>>
>>>> Sunday, March 1, 2020, 3:55:47 PM, you wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I am not a doctor. I don't even play one on TV
>>>> or any podcasts or blogs. I do pay attention
>>>> to as much scientifically-based information I
>>>> can find though.
>>>> This is a pretty good synopsis on our current
>>>> knowledge without any spin:
>>>> https://www.sciencenews.org/article/what-new-phase-coronavirus-outbreak-united-states-means-you
>>>>
>>>> bp
>>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>>
>>>> On 2/10/2020 8:53 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nazis are socialists. Bernie is a socialist.
>>>> Therefore Bernie is a Nazi. So the Internet says.
>>>>
>>>> *From:*AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com>
>>>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of
>>>> *Steve Jones
>>>> *Sent:* Monday, February 10, 2020 10:48 AM
>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>> <af@af.afmug.com> <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: Corona-fu (was UBNT
>>>> stock)
>>>>
>>>> thats the secret, remember russia shafted the
>>>> nazis last time... russia is in asia, so
>>>> russians are asians. Taking them out of the
>>>> running too.... Weve said too much
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Feb 10, 2020 at 10:45 AM Adam Moffett
>>>> <dmmoff...@gmail.com
>>>> <mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nazis also hate Communists. It all fits.
>>>>
>>>> On 2/10/2020 11:41 AM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Im suprised that hasnt gotten traction. This
>>>> is obviously genetically designed to target
>>>> Asians. The proof is that 99% of infections
>>>> are asians. Obviously this is the resurgence
>>>> of the Nazi party trying to eliminate a
>>>> majority of the population so they can
>>>> initiate another run at global domination. My
>>>> neighbors mom, Karen told me that her friend,
>>>> carols husband Brad told her that he heard
>>>> that this is what brexit was all about.
>>>> Germany and Great Britian are forming an
>>>> alliance now. Its all hush hush, but there is
>>>> a shadow government of guess what... Nazis.
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Feb 10, 2020 at 10:33 AM Adam Moffett
>>>> <dmmoff...@gmail.com
>>>> <mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You mean.....Nazi's created Coronavirus?
>>>>
>>>> On 2/10/2020 11:30 AM, Bill Prince wrote:
>>>> > I'm waiting for Godwin...
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > bp
>>>> > <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>> >
>>>> > On 2/10/2020 8:26 AM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>>>> >> The thing driving me nuts right now is that
>>>> literally everything is a
>>>> >> "conspiracy".
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Sometimes stuff happens, nobody did it on
>>>> purpose, and nobody has the
>>>> >> whole picture of what happened until more
>>>> time passes. In the interim
>>>> >> there's a lot of conflicting information
>>>> going around. People latch
>>>> >> onto early bits of information that turn
>>>> out to be wrong and they
>>>> >> won't let go of them.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Coronavirus was created by the Chinese to
>>>> distract press from Hong Kong
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Coronavirus was created by the USA to
>>>> defeat China in a trade war
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Coronavirus was created by Budweiser to
>>>> discredit Mexican Lager (I
>>>> >> mean that one's obviously a joke.....right?)
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Coronavirus will kill us all and we must
>>>> all stock our survival bunkers.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> China is hiding all the information about
>>>> Coronavirus. Really? Or
>>>> >> maybe they just don't have a live real-time
>>>> omniscient feed of all
>>>> >> information so they're reporting what they
>>>> think is true at the time
>>>> >> it's said, or maybe rumors on Facebook
>>>> aren't all true.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> See Hanlon's Razor and Occam's Razor.
>>>> >>
>>>> >>
>>>> >>
>>>> >> On 2/10/2020 11:03 AM, Bill Prince wrote:
>>>> >>> Starting a new thread to make this
>>>> discussion off topic.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> I had my flu shot BTW. No fever here.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Still zero reported deaths in the US, and
>>>> only about a dozen actual
>>>> >>> infections. I am still thinking this is
>>>> not a big deal. Novel
>>>> >>> Coronavirus appears to be more infectious
>>>> than SARS, but not
>>>> >>> particularly deadly.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>
>>>> >
>>>>
>>>> -- AF mailing list
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>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>>>
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>>>>
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>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>>>
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>>>> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>>>
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>>>> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
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>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>
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