On 5/5/2020 1:41 PM, Steven Kenney wrote:
Can summarize this pretty easily. These are facts that probably we
can agree upon.
1) Its a RNA based virus similar if not exactly like an exosome.
Fact.
2) Its definitely more deadly than the regular flu
Fact.
3) It isn't as deadly as everyone estimated it to be. (statistics and
predictions are all off)
Who's everyone?
4) Countries who didn't close their economy has similar statistics
than countries that did.
I don't know. I would say countries with a systematic approach to
testing and isolation of symptomatic people did better. Our problem (in
this case) is that disobedience is in our DNA. Tell me to stay home and
my first impulse is to leave just to prove that you can't friggin tell
me what to do. I'd say it's part of our national strength in most
cases, but in a pandemic it only hurts us.
5) I'm still staying home either way just to be safe!
Clearly not a fact everyone agrees on. See protests in Chicago, etc.
These points are to be debated and NOBODY can say with absolute
certainty these things are correct.
1) The virus originated from China
.....I thought that was pretty well settled.
2) It originated from a lab studying the virus.
A theory with no basis other than the circumstantial observation that
there is a virology lab in the same province as the outbreak. I'll bet
there are several virology labs in New York State. I'd say that's not
evidence that the virus originated from one.
3) It escaped either intentionally or accidentally.
Another theory based on circumstantial observations.
4) The demographics the virus impacts may or may not be specific (old,
young, white, black, asian etc)
Saying it may or may not do a certain thing is absolutely a fact.
Coronavirus may or may not wash my dishes for me. This is absolutely
true, but it's not a meaningful statement.
5) The people reporting statistics for deaths/infections are 100%
accurate. There are cases all over of under reporting and over
reporting.
100% accurate is not possible, nor is it necessary for any practical
purpose. We have a pretty good idea what the potential inaccuracies are
and we know pretty well how to adjust for them.
--
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)
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*From: *"Mathew Howard" <[email protected]>
*To: *"af" <[email protected]>
*Sent: *Tuesday, May 5, 2020 12:59:03 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?
It seems to me, that what really matters is how many deaths there have
been in excess of what the average was for the same period in previous
years (yes, I know that's what they're talking about in the NYT
article, but I'm too lazy to read it all and see how much detail they
go into). We can argue all day about whether somebody that died of a
heart attack died because they had covid19 or whether they just had an
unrelated heart attack and just happened to have a mild case of covid,
and whether they should be counted, but in the end, it doesn't really
matter. If say, an average of 10,000 people died in X state in April
for the past 5 years, and this year 15,000 died, then we can pretty
safely blame 5,000 of those deaths on covid. It doesn't really matter
if 6,000 people actually died of covid, but 1000 of them would've died
of flu anyway, and it just happened to be covid that finished them off
instead, or if 500 got so sick of sitting in front of the tv that they
jumped off a bridge and were never infected.
I don't think we'll ever have particularly accurate numbers of how
many people directly died of the infection (other than maybe in Utah),
but in a few months we should have pretty accurate numbers of how many
excess deaths there were.
On Tue, May 5, 2020 at 11:22 AM Ken Hohhof <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Those who suspect an “agenda” will immediately dispute these
graphs because the source is NYT which they will perceive as
biased. But if you read the article, they go out of their way to
point out possible errors in the data, as well as other influences
like overloaded healthcare system led to people dying of other
causes, but also less deaths due to traffic and violence. And the
data as Bill says is from other sources, the paper didn’t make
them up to suit a political agenda or bias.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
In other countries like Italy, no doubt the deaths were
undercounted because the system was overwhelmed. Even in NYC, the
morgues and crematories are overloaded, they are stuffing bodies
in refrigerated semis, you can’t possibly claim these are just the
normal deaths being mislabeled as Covid related to suit an
agenda. Then you have all the prison and nursing home deaths. OK,
sure, elderly people croak all the time, it’s a hoax.
*From:* AF <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Tuesday, May 5, 2020 11:02 AM
*To:* [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?
The numbers posted on various web sites are neither government
sourced or corporate sourced. Hospitals, clinics, and morgues are
supplying the numbers. There is a level of uncertainty because of
different criteria. That is true for the US cases, but probably
not for other countries. For example, the numbers coming from
China (and several other countries) are by design government
based. But to brush them all off as "government or corporations"
is being naive at least.
I would not say that "most" patients have pre-existing conditions.
Maybe a high percentage, but it does not explain why such a large
number of otherwise healthy people are being infected the way they
are. At some point, we will figure out that there is a genetic or
environmental factor that we just do not understand yet.
I (for one) do not believe the numbers are 100% accurate, but I
also do not believe the numbers are 100% fictitious either. Where
you cut off is probably a personal thing.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/5/2020 6:55 AM, Steven Kenney wrote:
You guys work with statistics much? You think the numbers are
accurate? At what point have you ever seen government or
corporations represent 100% accurate numbers?
I'll let you do your own homework. But I've seen hundreds of
reports from all over the place of deaths of natural causes
being classified as covid deaths. Since most patients have
existing conditions and many were already dying and died of
those conditions (heart attack, cancer etc) are being
attributed to covid. Some people have estimated that upward of
20% misrepresented. So as long as there is 1 case that is
questionable - the statistics are not accurate.
--
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: *"Bill Prince" <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*To: *"af" <[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*Sent: *Monday, May 4, 2020 2:04:16 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?
The numbers are not "completely" false, but it's the best we
can do when we don't actually test all the suspected
infections. It also (probably) missed a whole lot of the early
deaths, as they were miss-classified. If you think
under-ground near-do-wells are planted in all the hospitals
around the country and are coordinating false numbers on all
the rest of us, then I have a tin hat that might fit real well.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/4/2020 10:48 AM, Steven Kenney wrote:
Numbers are completely false. Even with that taken into
regard it still is just as lethal as the regular flu.
While it is way more harsh on people if they get it, most
people have underlying conditions, or didn't know they had
them, or didn't take it serious when they got it.
Unfortunately politicians never waste a crisis to further
their agenda.
--
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: *"chuck" <[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*To: *"af" <[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*Sent: *Monday, May 4, 2020 12:30:08 PM
*Subject: *[AFMUG] OT Is this good?
image
Every time I get my hopes up this curve breaks my
heart... Let’s hope we are on the tail of a normal curve.
6 days in a row decline. But it has done this cycle 3
times before with a huge spike after.
--
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