On Thu, Feb 14, 2019 at 7:47 AM Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote:

> These comments by Linus seem a little stale. Have you ever made
> inquiries about your recollections about what IBM said Watson could
> do? Have you looked into the current progress of Watson with medical
> knowledge?


Indeed perhaps they are stale. I had assumed that if there was progress, I
would have heard about it with the same ferocity as the original round of
advertisements.

I did not mean to imply that expert systems are wrong, or are bad. They
seem quite viable, now that there is more ram, disk and compute power.
Algos can dig deeper, explore more branches, find and resolve more
inconsistencies. The Jeopardy tournament clearly proved that. Historically,
the systems were incapable of "learning from experience" but tighter
coupling to experiential systems might solve that. Whether or not a
suitcase fits in a trophy, or the other way around depends on one's
experience with trophies and suitcases; to have experience with either, you
have to be a human (with a need move items, and a interest in
trophy-granting activities (and a suitcase in a closet, and experience with
places that have closets or attics ...))  Common sense is experiential;
something you develop over decades of interacting with a reactive
environment.

My critique of Doug Lenat is that perhaps he underestimated the magnitude
of the task,and pinned too much hope on "microtheories" to resolve
deductive inconsistencies.

There is an open question: is it better to curate an existing
knowledge-base, slowly expanding it, or is it better to create a more
robust learning system, that will be able to rapidly acquire the needed
knowledge once it's turned on?  I'm betting on the latter, not the former.

--linas

-- 
cassette tapes - analog TV - film cameras - you

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