The problem with using compression to predict events is that you can still pick models to get any result you want. Even when you have a lot of data. Could you compress world population data or GDP or life expectancy to predict 50 years out? I could. What result would you like?
The problem is that Kolmogorov's language dependent constant is bigger than the result you are looking for. Prediction markets are more interesting. In the last election, the markets gave Trump a 30% chance of winning even though every poll said he would lose. A more interesting result is that you can't predict future prices to profit in any market because the current price is already the best estimate. On Tue, Oct 15, 2019, 12:55 PM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > If you would find it interesting to subject social theories to the > lossless compression model selection criterion, you should vote up this > question at metaculus.com > > > https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-of-data-be-accepted-as-a-model-selection-criterion-in-the-social-sciences/ > > > metaculus.com is a quasi-delphi method polling site. > > On Fri, Oct 11, 2019 at 2:14 PM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Most urgently: To head off imminent civil war by, instead, resolving >> disputes over consequences of social policy to be resolved with the degree >> of lossless compression as the model selection criterion. >> >> Think about this, guys: >> >> Chicago has one of the highest rates of gun violence of any city in the >> world. Downstate Illinois is typical of The Nation of Settlers: Radically >> supportive of individualism including the right to keep and bear arms. The >> Illinois governor is from a wealthy Chicago real estate family. Property >> values in Chicago are brought down by its gun violence. The Illinois >> legislature recently considered widespread gun confiscation under an >> interpretation of the 2nd, 9th, 10th, and 14th amendments. Downstate >> Illinois citizens immediately formed armed militias prepared to fight to >> the death. For now, the Illinois government has backed off. >> >> There is a trend throughout the US for states -- particularly those in >> opposition to Trump -- to invoke State nullification under their >> interpretations of the 9th, 10th, and 14th amendments. In some cases, >> these attempts at nullification are entirely Constitutional, as in repeal >> of drug laws that the Feds want to retain control over without a >> Constitutional grant of power. In most cases, though, these are clear >> violations of the US Constitution, such as "sanctuary States", like >> California, that obstruct legitimate Federal powers. >> >> Moreover, there is a clear trend toward polarization in the body politic >> over social policy -- primarily between urban and rural populations. At >> this point the polarization is so extreme that there is little likelihood >> of a peaceful resolution unless rationality can be imposed on the "national >> conversation" over social policy and its implications for the etiology of >> social ills. >> >> If violence breaks out, here's how its going to go down: >> >> 1) During a cold snap, the natural gas and electric grid supplies of the >> major cities will go down simultaneously. >> 2) The water supplies of the major cities will go down simultaneously. >> 3) Transportation infrastructure into the major cities will go down >> simultaneously. >> >> 100 million people will die, primarily in the major urban areas like NYC, >> Chicago, Detroit, LA, SF, Miami, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Portland >> (OR), Seattle and Houston. >> >> Conflict will spread to all areas of the West that have permitted large >> scale immigration from non-Western countries. >> >> The likely response of the centers of power will be dispersion of >> biological agents targeted at rural genotypes. >> >> 25% of Western populations will die. >> >> On Fri, Oct 11, 2019 at 10:03 AM <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> The Lord. >>> >>> Well. Good question. I've tasted life and want more. I figured out I'm >>> going to die and I'm planning all my time into working on a big plan, >>> resisting all fun and valuing my plan instead. >>> >> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M799b4d7b2f5714ee973f0f82> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M32c1c3d7ea7ba8f0e522dafb Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
