On Fri, Nov 15, 2019, 8:03 AM John Rose <[email protected]> wrote:
> Hey look a partial taxonomy: > > http://immortality-roadmap.com/zombiemap3.pdf > >From http://immortality-roadmap.com/ Turchin's summary of all the ideas on LessWrong organized into tables. I stopped following them. I don't believe there will be a singularity like Vinge predicted for 2023 because infinite gains in technology are impossible in a finite universe. I don't believe a hard takeoff unfriendly AI is possible because intelligence depends on knowledge and computing power and a self modifying program gains neither. I don't believe in technological immortality because it would require reprogramming your brain to turn off your beliefs in qualia, consciousness, and free will, all part of your evolved survival instinct, to believe that a robot that looks and acts like you is you. Moore's law will stall because physics. There isn't going to be a life expectancy escape velocity because human experiments in longevity take too long. The trend is in the wrong direction. The rate of change of global life expectancy peaked at 0.2 years per year in the 1990's. Actual life expectancy in the USA peaked in 2014 and is declining. Historically, the greatest existential threats to any species have come from competition from other species, for example, bubonic plague, smallpox, and malaria. A strain of flu killed 1% of the world population in 1918. I believe the greatest future threats will come from pathogens engineered to be deadly and highly contagious released by amateur biohackers as the technology for creating them becomes cheaper. Imagine a common cold virus modified to give you AIDS or produce neurotoxins. Imagine self replicating nanotechnology not based on DNA. I believe AGI is possible through specialization, that is, lots of narrow AI taking over every conceivable job. This will greatly reduce the computing requirements, which are otherwise 24 petaflops and 2 petabytes needed to model the human brain's 600 trillion synapses at 20 Hz. There are currently 4 computers in the world that fast, and all require at least 1.5 megawatts. The only way to achieve 20 watts like the brain uses is nanotechnology, moving atoms instead of electrons. I believe this is achievable. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T251f13454e6192d4-Mb2195d8afecf9b263146137b Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
