On Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 1:14 AM <immortal.discover...@gmail.com> wrote:
> If we ignore all this detail, we can see Evolution of Earth has been > exponential. > Evolution is chaotic, not exponential. It has long periods where nothing happens, punctuated by mass proliferation and mass extinction when a new species evolves a major survival advantage. Examples include the transition from RNA to DNA, protein synthesis, photosynthesis, oxidizing metabolism, multicellular organisms (the Cambrian explosion) with muscles, brains, and sensory organs, sexual reproduction, and human language allowing us to work as groups and development technology. Each burst starts off with exponential growth until it exhausts resources and establishes its place as the new dominant lifeform. We are in the exponential phase of human proliferation and mass extinction of other species now. But population growth peaked in 1970 and is slowing now. The rate of increase of life expectancy peaked at 0.2 years per year in 1990. Computer clock speeds leveled off at 2-3 GHz in 2010. By 2030 we will not be able to shrink transistors any more. There is still room for other species to dominate humans, species that we create ourselves using nanotechnology instead of DNA. Plants produce only 250 TW (terawatts) of carbohydrates from the 90,000 TW of sunlight available at the Earth's surface. (Global energy production is 15 TW). We already have solar panels that are 20-30% efficient. We already know how to make tiny wheels and electric motors out of metal and plastic. We can make mechanical computing elements out of molecules that are a billion times more efficient than transistors and a thousand times more efficient than neurons. We can build a Dyson sphere to capture all of the sun's 3.84 x 10^26 watts. We can seed planets throughout the galaxy with self replicating nanotechnology using conventional rockets over millions of years. But this is not a singularity. The observable universe has finite computing capacity, 10^120 quantum operations and 10^90 bits of memory. Progress must eventually stop. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T65747f0622d5047f-M5f9eec39edf2b5a42b38d5aa Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
