This article on Astral Codex Ten discusses the extinction tournament, which brought together AI domain experts and super forecasters to estimate the risk of human extinction by AI or other causes. They and Metaculus estimate roughly 1% to 5% chance of extinction by 2100, with AI being the highest risk, followed by nuclear war and genetically engineered pathogens. There is a higher risk of catastrophic but non extinction events. Also, we are nearly certain to have AGI by 2100.
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-extinction-tournament I mostly agree with the risk estimates. What about you? ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T91a503beb3f94ef7-M0056da5fb89045e5ce487a01 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
