Not sure if "risk" is the right word. Self-replicating nano-robots might regard the extinction of DNA based life as a positive outcome, just as we consider the extinction of Homo Erectus.
On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 6:13 PM, rg <[email protected]> wrote: > Sorry it did mention risks! > > Best regards > > Reine > > > On 12/07/2012 11:37 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote: >> >> Here is a draft of a paper I am working on. I would appreciate any >> comments. You might find the content somewhat controversial. >> >> The Costs and Risks of AI >> >> Abstract >> >> In 2011, we paid people worldwide US $70 trillion to do work that >> machines did not know how to do. Automating the global economy will >> require solving hard problems in language, vision, robotics, art, and >> modeling human behavior. We estimate the computational costs to be >> 10^26 operations per second, 10^25 bytes of memory, 10^19 input/output >> bits per second, and 10^17 to 10^18 bits of human knowledge collected >> at a rate of 7 bits per person per second, assuming a cultural >> acceptance of the disappearance of privacy. The design and software >> effort is at least 10^6 lines of code, but could be as high as 10^12 >> lines without significant cost impact in order to optimize for >> insufficient computing power before 2030 if Moore’s Law continues, and >> to compensate for insufficient human knowledge after that. The total >> cost will be on the order of $1 quadrillion, a global effort lasting >> decades. >> >> An immediate consequence of the availability of models of the minds of >> living people will be the ability to replace failed body parts, >> including brains, and to copy human memory, effectively solving the >> problem of death. This practice will result, with high probability, in >> the quick end of Homo Sapiens, and possibly all DNA-based life, due to >> competition for space, matter, and energy by autonomous, self >> replicating robots. >> >> Rest of paper: >> >> https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cQiaH81rB5l9eLRYZFSi_tOLzRzOsY8wVruimPUWybg/edit# >> >> >> -- >> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> AGI >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/9931394-ef56be78 >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> >> > > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/3701026-786a0853 > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
