Russell, The link Matt provided was not for the AGI-12 conference on AGI research, but rather for another smaller conference operated by Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, AGI-Impacts, which is co-located with AGI-12 and deals with the potential future implications of AGI...
If you look at the page for the actual AGI conference, http://agi-conference.org/2012/schedule/ you will find a rather different set of papers ;p ben On Mon, Dec 10, 2012 at 11:44 AM, Russell Wallace <[email protected]> wrote: > Matt, thanks for the report. I had not been particularly optimistic > about rate of progress in AGI, but even my pessimistic self had not > expected the field to turn into toxic garbage at the rate at which it > has done. > > On Mon, Dec 10, 2012 at 4:59 AM, Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: >> On Sun, Dec 9, 2012 at 10:56 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> You can find the papers here. >>> http://www.mindmakers.org/projects/agiconf-2012/wiki/Schedule >> >> I read the extended abstracts here: >> http://www.winterintelligence.org/agi-impacts-extended-abstracts/ >> >> Summary: out of 12 papers, 0 report advances toward AGI. >> >> The one paper that reports any experimental results whatsoever is the >> one by Stuart Armstrong: Predicting AI… or failing to. >> The main result (from reading the whole paper) is that the >> distribution of predictions of time to AI has not changed since the >> 1950's, even though those predictions are known to be wrong. >> >> Nine of the papers are on the general theme of safety, ethics, or >> friendliness of self improving AI. There seems to be a general belief >> that if we can produce a smarter than human AI, then so could it, only >> faster. So we had better get its goal system right. But there is only >> one problem. It is all of humanity, not a single human, that produced >> this super-human AI. So the threshold for self improvement hasn't been >> crossed yet. If you want an example of recursive self improvement, >> then look at civilization making a better version of civilization, as >> measured by economic growth and increased life expectancy. That is >> happening in spite of the lack of any obvious goal system that needs >> to be programmed. >> >> To see why creating a single super-human AI is not recursive self >> improvement, ask yourself if you could have done it 100 years ago, >> knowing what you know now. Could you have done it if you were the only >> living person on the planet? If not, then you had help. >> >> >> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> AGI >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/1658954-f53d1a3f >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/212726-deec6279 > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com -- Ben Goertzel, PhD http://goertzel.org "My humanity is a constant self-overcoming" -- Friedrich Nietzsche ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
