On Sat, Jan 5, 2013 at 8:52 AM, Anastasios Tsiolakidis < [email protected]> wrote: I doubt this will help but the prediction many of us are interested in is "multiverse generation", the generation of many alternatives that could happen next together with their paraphernalia, like their probability and desirability and semantics. Then, I guess, we try to best match the input data with the fantastic universe whose properties we "know", meaning the properties predicted by our imperfect models.
Anastasios, If you want to talk about fantastic theories I have no problem with that. I have had many discussions about beyond-the-fringe theories, and in some cases I learned something. However, the very idea that this is a feasible method or is based on sound reasoning is pretty over the top. So my challenge is: * Use prediction in real life so that you can get a slightly better sense of how it actually works as a tool of mental theorization. For example, use you speculations about the feasibility and reasonablness of the multiverse generation to create and predict the outcome of actual experimentation that could validate the theory - even in very limited experiments. It is interesting that you said, "I doubt this will help..." I think the qualification shows that you have more flexibility than some of the others who make more strident or less qualified statements. Tim, I know full well that if reality does not match our expectations it can be very surprising. But in this case you are using expectation in a mundane way. I can, for example, rephrase that and say that if reality does not match our understanding of it it can be very surprising. Here, 'understanding' plays almost the same role as 'expectation'. What I have been trying to say is that, ok, prediction (expectation) comes with understanding but it is understanding and (internal) explanations that drive 'expectation'. With a theory like the multiverse generation that Anastasios mentioned, explanatory theory is reduced to a minimal role, more like it is in behaviorist theory. Now I don't actually understand multiverse generation so perhaps explanatory theory plays a greater role than I know of. However, if it did, then, as I say, explanatory theory would drive prediction. Jim Bromer On Sat, Jan 5, 2013 at 8:52 AM, Anastasios Tsiolakidis < [email protected]> wrote: > On Sat, Jan 5, 2013 at 2:31 PM, Tim Tyler <[email protected]> wrote: > >> On 02/01/2013 23:13, Jim Bromer wrote: I am going to try one more time. >> Many people in this group have talked about ‘prediction’ as a fundamental >> tool of AGI. There was discussion in the old days of using prediction as a >> method of validation in an AI program. My challenge to people in this group >> is to try using prediction in your everyday life if you think it is such a >> great method. >> >> ...but the idea is that everybody is doing this all the time. If the >> brain wasn't >> constantly making predictions of what it expected to happen, it wouldn't >> know when to be surprised - when reality deviates from the expectations. >> >> >> I doubt this will help but the prediction many of us are interested in is > "multiverse generation", the generation of many alternatives that could > happen next together with their paraphernalia, like their probability and > desirability and semantics. Then, I guess, we try to best match the input > data with the fantastic universe whose properties we "know", meaning the > properties predicted by our imperfect models. > > For example, if a proper AGI chatbot was waiting for a conversation > partner, it would no doubt have to expect/predict some possible > conversation strategies including first messages like "Hello" or "You > metalic craphead, are you there?", the latter being the nasty > confrontational strategy some people prefer some of the time. If the first > line was "Douche" or even *doush" you'd be well advised to see it as part > of the nasty controversial world, even though you couldn't predict "doush" > in any other sense. > > Amen! > > AT > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10561250-470149cf> | > Modify<https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;>Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
