I made reasoned guesses.  And I tried to find alternative ways to support
my theory.  A theory is not something that is immediately assumed to be a
fact.  It is a way of combining reasons and reasoned conjectures to try to
explain or characterize something.  So while I try to make guesses about
solving the problem the "guesses" are all carefully tied into the problem.
I don't, for example, guess that the solution to the problem is "more
horses" or something like that.  From the point of view of someone who
really does not understand what it is that I am talking about and who does
not understand what the contemporary problems are, a remark like that just
looks stupid.  Of course the solution to creating a feasible AGI program is
not "more horses!"  But in response to your remark it shows that my
"guesses" are somehow strongly tied into the subject matter.  That ability
to make reasonable educated guesses about problems is something that AGI
programs can rarely do because it does not happen often enough to build a
solid foundation for general intelligence.
Jim Bromer

On Mon, Feb 4, 2013 at 6:11 PM, Mike Tintner <[email protected]>wrote:

>   *Jim: This is an elusive problem because of the range of the
> possibilities.  So, in order to explain how this can take place in a simple
> time frame I have to guess that it is done through a narrowing of the
> possibilities. *
> **
> *Or it’s done the way you actually tried to solve your problem here. You
> just guessed. You didn’t “narrow the possibilities”. Neither you nor your
> unconscious brain could define a set of possibilities here -   a set of
> “methods of solving problems about inscrutable events.” There is no such
> set.*
> **
> *So you just guessed – a one-off, straight-off, reasoned, inference. As
> you say, you “have to. “ Guess what? That’s how real, inscrutable world
> reasoning mainly works One guess at a time.  Guess after guess.*
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