On Sat, Mar 1, 2014 at 7:08 AM, Tim Tyler <[email protected]> wrote: > On 28/02/2014 13:10, Matt Mahoney wrote: > > The bottleneck is not inference. For now, it is processing power. Vision, and > to a lesser extent hearing, language, robotics, and modeling human behavior > require enormous computation, even though they are not NP-hard. Moore's Law > should solve this problem in about 30 years if it stays on track. > > 30 years?!? Moravec predicted essentially this for around 2020 long ago - > and, these days, > most seem to think that this was an over-estimate. > > http://singularitybookreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Moravec-Graph.png
If we had plotted a similar graph of automotive technology from 1890 to 1920, we might have predicted that cars would cost one cent and travel faster than light. As late as the 1950's, we were predicting nuclear powered flying cars by now. I hate to be the one to throw a wet rag on Moore's Law, but the fact is that machines are not now at monkey level intelligence as the graph predicted in 1997. We are still a long way from building robots that can weave spider webs. However, we might be close to achieving nematode level. http://www.artificialbrains.com/openworm You might have noticed that several years ago, CPU clock speeds have stopped getting faster. http://mike.teczno.com-img.s3.amazonaws.com/nogis-talk/NoGIS-slides.016.jpg Computers are still getting faster through parallelism, but soon we will run into the fundamental problem that you can't make transistors smaller than atoms. Right now the smallest feature sizes are about 100 atoms wide and a few atoms thick. Further shrinking will not make transistors 10^5 times more energy efficient, which is what we would need to do to match the power consumption of the human brain. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
