On Sat, Dec 27, 2014 at 11:24 AM, John Rose via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > Is the date of the Singularity or any future date for that matter hardcoded > in time?
Remember we are talking about the future. The future is hard to predict. All we can do is extrapolate from past experience and make guesses that become less accurate over time. Moore's Law has been pretty consistent over the last 50 to 100 years. If we suppose that it continues at the present rate of increasing computing power by a factor of 10 every 5 years, then global computing power (now 10^20 OPS, 10^22 bits), will surpass 10^10 human brains (10^26 OPS, 10^24 bits) in 2045. A human body has 10^13 cells, each with 10^10 bits of memory encoded in DNA. Based on the 1 kg of food you eat each day, your body performs about 10^18 molecular OPS on DNA and RNA bases and amino acids. Thus, Moore's Law will surpass the computational power of all human bodies (10^28 OPS, 10^33 bits) in 2070. It will surpass the computational power of the biosphere (10^31 OPS, 10^37 bits) in 2090. The sun emits 3.8 x 10^26 W. This will support 10^48 OPS at the thermodynamic limit (kT ln 2 ~ 10^-22 J/op) at the CMB temperature of 3K. To reach this in 2155 at Moore's law predicts, we will need to build a Dyson sphere at a radius of 10,000 AU. Anything beyond this will require interstellar travel, and thus a slowing of Moore's law by speed of light delays. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
