Hi Ben, > If you model a system in approximate detail then potentially you can > avoid big surprises and have only small surprises.
In chaotic systems, my guess is that compact models would capture many possibilities that would otherwise be surprises - especially in the near term. But I think it's unlikely that these models would capture all the big potential surprises leaving only small surprises to happen. I would imagine that compact models would fail to capture at least some lower-probability very big surprises. > If a super-AI were reshaping the universe, it could reshape the > universe in such a way that from that point on, the dynamics of the > universe would be reasonably well predictable via compact approximative > models. In fact this would probably be a clever thing to do, assuming > it could be done without sacrificing too much of the creative potential > of the universe... My guess is that, to make the universe a moderately predictable place, creativity would have to be kept at a very low level - with only creativity space for one super-AGI. Trying to knock the unpredictability out of the universe could be engaging for a super-AGI (that was so inclined) for a while (given the resistance it would encounter). But I reckon the super-AGI might find a moderately predictable universe fairly unstimulating in the long run. Cheers, Philip ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
