Re: [agi] Why so few AGI projects?

[Joshua Fox]

Thanks, all, for those insightful answers. In combination with the published discussion of the topic, this thread is enlightening.

Still, to push the point, I am fantasizing a conversation with a Hypothetical Open-Minded World-Renowned Eloquent Cognitive Scientist (Howecs). Surely there must be a few of these out there. Daniel Dennett comes to mind, though I hesitate to focus on any one person's ideas.

I am setting aside the herd-followers, the nine-to-fivers, and the outliers for the purposes of this discussion.

Using Pei's points as a convenient summary, Professor Howecs would relate as follows to common objections.

1. "AGI is impossible" & 2. "There is no such a thing as general intelligence"-- Howecs can recognize that AGI is probably possible in principle -- and if it is impossible, that unsuccessful attempts will bring insights on fundamental philosophical questions which  scholars have been working on for centuries.

3. "General-purpose systems are not as good as special-purpose ones" -- Howecs would recognize that performance and efficiency are not needed for philosophical questions, which is what he is professionally most interested in.

4. "AGI is already included in the current AI" ---Howecs would recognize that if AI subfield X is the secret to AGI, then X is just the correct path to take to AGI, and X research is the equivalent of AGI research.

5. "It is too early to work on AGI" --- Howecs is either a philosophy professor or so advanced in his field that his work impinges on philosophy, so working on pie-in-the-sky topics does not bother him at all.

6. "AGI is nothing but hype" --- Howecs knows to separate hype from reality and knows that past over-hyped projects do not obviate the value of a scientific field. Carl Sagan dealt heavily in SETI, even though this has attracted lots of sci-fi, lots of weirdos, and lots of failure -- and surely Sagan would qualify as a Howecs in his field.

7. "AGI research is not fruitful --- it is hard to get result, support, reward, ..." -- Howecs can muster funding for himself and his students at will, and is fearless of public opinion.  He can choose sub-topics which will give interim results; he, as an opinion-leader, will make the world respect these. (Note that in academia,  a well-argued paper in itself can be considered a "result." Implementable technologies or rigorous proofs are not always needed, as long as the relevant academic community is interested in the ideas.)

8. "AGI is dangerous" --- Think of how the greatest of  nuclear physicists and microbiologists reacted to potentially dangerous technologies. Howecs, first, is too scientifically curious to let the fear drive him away; and second, he knows the importance of mitigating the dangers.

So, where are all the Howecses speaking up for AGI research?

Joshua

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