On Fri, 02 Feb 2007 22:01:34 -0500, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
In Novamente, we use entities called "indefinite probabilities",
which are described in a paper to appear in the AGIRI Workshop
Proceedings later this year...
Roughly speaking an indefinite probability is a quadruple
(L,U,b,N) with interpretation
"The probability is b that after I make N more observations, my
estimated mean for the probability distribution attached to
statement S will be in the interval (L,U)"
Where statement S might be some general hypothesis, e.g., "All
ravens are black", is that right? And then b increases as N
increases -- as Novamente sees more black ravens. Yes? Does the
confidence interval also change?
If N increases, then a combination of things can happen. We can keep
b fixed, in which case [L,U] shrinks; we can keep [L,U] fixed, in
which case our confidence b increases; or we can obtain a combination
of events -- increase b a bit and shrink [L,U] at the same time.
OTOH a large increase in b might also require an increase in the size
of [L,U].
--matt
-gts
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