Ben,
Of course the world is an enormously complex relation of interdependencies
between many causes and effects. I do not dispute that fact.
I question however whether this should really be an important
consideration in developing AGI.
One's probabilistic judgements should always be justified, yes? And when a
probabilistic judgement P(A) is justified only by one or more other
probabilistic judgements [P(Q), P(R), and P(S), say] then one is not
justified in assuming P(A) should have a value greater than [P(Q) * P(R) *
P(S)]. Yes?
If that coherency condition is not true for an AGI then I might have
trouble trusting its probabilistic judgements. I do not much care in this
case whether our AGI is correct in its probabilistic judgement about A (it
may be ignorant about many facts of the world including many facts related
to judgements about Q, R and S) but I do care whether our AGI is
*justified* in its appraisal of P(A).
Note that dutch books cannot be made against an AGI that does not claim to
have knowledge it does not have.
-gts
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