On 2/8/07, gts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I gave an example of a Dutch book in a post to Russell in which an incoherent thinker assigns a higher probability to intelligent life on Mars than to mere life on Mars. Since the first hypothesis can be true only if the second is true, it is incoherent to assign a higher probability to the first than to the second. Coherence is basically just common sense applied to probabilistic reasoning. I'm dismayed to learn from Ben that coherence is so difficult to achieve in AGI.
In simple cases like the above one, an AGI should achieve coherence with little difficulty. What an AGI cannot do is to guarantee coherence in all situations, which is impossible for human beings, neither --- think about situations where the incoherence of a bet setting needs many steps of inference, as well as necessary domain knowledge, to reveal. Pei ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=303
