On 10/18/07, J Storrs Hall, PhD <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 1. What is the single biggest technical gap between current AI and AGI? (e.g.
> we need a way to do X or we just need more development of Y or we have the
> ideas, just need hardware, etc)

Procedural knowledge. Data in relational databases can be sliced this
way and that, text documents can at least be searched in sophisticated
ways, proofs in formal logic can be checked and reasoned from etc; but
code can only be run as-is, and then only in precisely the environment
for which it was written. Procedural knowledge needs to become first
class.

> 2. Do you have an idea as to what should should be done about (1) that would
> significantly accelerate progress if it were generally adopted?

Yes, build and use a system that makes procedural knowledge first class.

> 3. If (2), how long would it take the field to attain (a) a baby mind, (b) a
> mature human-equivalent AI, if your idea(s) were adopted and AGI seriously
> pursued?
>
> 4. How long to (a) and (b) if AI research continues more or less as it is
> doing now?

Human-equivalent AI isn't feasible. Give me a Space Shuttle's worth of
funding (a few billion a year sustained for a few decades) and I'll
take a shot at it, but in reality the world doesn't want it enough to
commit anywhere near those resources to it.

Smart CAD, however, might be doable in the next decade or two if things go well.

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