Matt Mahoney wrote:
> [...]
>
>> 4. How long to (a) and (b) if AI research continues 
>> more or less as it is doing now?
>
> It would make not a bit of difference.  
> There is already a US $66 trillion/year incentive 
> to develop AGI (the value of all human labor). 
> Nobody on this list has the One Big Breakthrough.

Watch This Space
http://textbookrevolution.org/computers-tech
leads to
http://mind.sourceforge.net/aisteps.html 

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