>> my inclination has been to see progress as very slow toward an >> explicitly-coded AI, and so to guess that the whole brain emulation approach >> would succeed first
Why are you not considering a seed/learning AGI? ----- Original Message ----- From: Robin Hanson To: [email protected] Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2007 6:41 AM Subject: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? I've been invited to write an article for an upcoming special issue of IEEE Spectrum on "Singularity", which in this context means rapid and large social change from human-level or higher artificial intelligence. I may be among the most enthusiastic authors in that issue, but even I am somewhat skeptical. Specifically, after ten years as an AI researcher, my inclination has been to see progress as very slow toward an explicitly-coded AI, and so to guess that the whole brain emulation approach would succeed first if, as it seems, that approach becomes feasible within the next century. But I want to try to make sure I've heard the best arguments on the other side, and my impression was that many people here expect more rapid AI progress. So I am here to ask: where are the best analyses arguing the case for rapid (non-emulation) AI progress? I am less interested in the arguments that convince you personally than arguments that can or should convince a wide academic audience. [I also posted this same question to the sl4 list.] Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=63822575-74b1e4
