On Mon, Jul 28, 2008 at 10:04 AM, YKY (Yan King Yin) <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Here is an example of a problematic inference: > > 1. Mary has cybersex with many different partners > 2. Cybersex is a kind of sex > 3. Therefore, Mary has many sex partners > 4. Having many sex partners -> high chance of getting STDs > 5. Therefore, Mary has a high chance of STDs > > What's wrong with this argument?
It is the same issue as in your previous thread, and my previous reply is copied in the following: On Fri, Jul 4, 2008 at 6:12 PM, Pei Wang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Though there is a "loop", YKY's problem not is caused by circular > inference, but by "multiple Inheritances", that is, different > inference paths give different conclusions. This is indeed a problem > in Bayes net, and there is no general solution in that theory, except > in special cases. > > This problem is solved in NARS mainly by the confidence measurement, > though inference trails are also relevant. > > See my "Reference Classes and Multiple Inheritances" at > http://www.cogsci.indiana.edu/farg/peiwang/papers.html#reference_classes As for your new example, there is nothing wrong in the argument, except that with the additional knowledge most of us have, we reach a stronger opposite conclusion (with a higher confidence), so the above argument is rejected. > It seems that a general rule is > involved in step 4, and that rule can be "refined" with some > qualifications (ie, it does not apply to all kinds of sex). But the > question is, how can an AGI detect that an exception to a general rule > has occurred? > > Or, do we need to explicitly state the exceptions to every rule? Every "rule" is "general" to a degree, which means it ignores exception. It is simply impossible to list all exceptions for any given rule. This issue has been discussed by many people in the non-monotonic logic community. The solution is not to exclude exceptions, but to give more confident conclusion higher priority whenever a conflicts happens. Pei > Thanks for any comments! > YKY > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=108809214-a0d121 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
