On 08/29/2008 03:14 PM, William Pearson wrote:
2008/8/29 j.k.<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
... The human-level AGI running a million
times faster could simultaneously interact with tens of thousands of
scientists at their pace, so there is no reason to believe it need be
starved for interaction to the point that its productivity would be limited
to near human levels of productivity.
Only if it had millions of times normal human storage capacity and
memory bandwidth, else it couldn't keep track of all the
conversations, and sufficient bandwidth for ten thousand VOIP calls at
once.
And sufficient electricity, etc. There are many other details that would
have to be spelled out if we were trying to give an exhaustive list of
every possible requirement. But the point remains that *if* the
technological advances that we expect to occur actually do occur, then
there will be greater-than-human intelligence that was created by
human-level intelligence -- unless one thinks that memory capacity, chip
design and throughput, disk, system, and network bandwidth, etc., are
close to as good as they'll ever get. On the contrary, there are more
promising new technologies on the horizon than one can keep track of
(not to mention current technologies that can still be improved), which
makes it extremely unlikely that any of these or the other relevant
factors are close to practical maximums.
We should perhaps clarify what you mean by speed here? The speed of
the transistor is not all of what makes a system useful. It is worth
noting that processor speed hasn't gone up appreciably from the heady
days of Pentium 4s with 3.8 GHZ in 2005.
Improvements have come from other directions (better memory bandwidth,
better pipelines and multi cores).
I didn't believe that we could drop a 3 THz chip (if that were
physically possible) onto an existing motherboard and it would scale
linearly or that a better transistor would be the *only* improvement
that occurs. When I said "31 million times faster", I meant the system
as a whole would be 31 million times faster at achieving its
computational goals. This will obviously require many improvements in
processor design, system architecture, memory, bandwidth, physics &
materials sciences, and others, but the scenario I was trying to discuss
was one in which these sorts of things will have occurred.
This is getting quite far off topic from the point I was trying to make
originally, so I'll bow out of this discussion now.
j.k.
-------------------------------------------
agi
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